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Application of the Asymptotic Extreme Value Probability Theory to Forecasting the Risk of High Floods in the Lower Amur
Water Resources ( IF 0.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-22 , DOI: 10.1134/s0097807820030094 A. N. Makhinov , V. Yu. Kosygin , M. Kh. Akhtyamov , V. D. Katin
中文翻译:
渐近极值概率理论在下阿穆尔河高洪灾风险预测中的应用
更新日期:2020-05-22
Water Resources ( IF 0.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-22 , DOI: 10.1134/s0097807820030094 A. N. Makhinov , V. Yu. Kosygin , M. Kh. Akhtyamov , V. D. Katin
Abstract
A characteristic feature of the Amur River is the frequent catastrophic floods, which cause considerable damage to the population and hamper economic activity. Statistical analysis of the maximal annual water levels in the Amur at Khabarovksk gage over the observation period since 1896 to 2016 gave analytical expressions for probability distribution functions of the general populations of water levels over the entire observation period, as well as over periods of originally weak (1896–1960) and current (1961–2016) intense economic development of the Amur basin. It was shown that the risk of high floods had decreased recently by half, while the average intervals of their recurrence had doubled compared with the previous period. The intense economic activity in the Amur basin in the recent decades was shown to have caused a decrease in the most likely water levels by 0.5 m. Overall, the hazard of high floods in the valley of the lower reaches of the Amur have decreased, however, accompanied by an increase in the amplitude of water level marks and its extreme values for individual years, as was manifested in the catastrophic 2013 flood. Calculations show that the average recurrence period of this outstanding flood is 144 years and its probability is 0.7%. The obtained data can be used in the development of a system of bank protection and channel-forming measures in the lower reaches of the Amur in the assessment of the anthropogenic impact on changes in water regime and water and floodplain ecosystems of the river.中文翻译:
渐近极值概率理论在下阿穆尔河高洪灾风险预测中的应用