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Application of the Asymptotic Extreme Value Probability Theory to Forecasting the Risk of High Floods in the Lower Amur
Water Resources ( IF 0.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-22 , DOI: 10.1134/s0097807820030094
A. N. Makhinov , V. Yu. Kosygin , M. Kh. Akhtyamov , V. D. Katin

Abstract

A characteristic feature of the Amur River is the frequent catastrophic floods, which cause considerable damage to the population and hamper economic activity. Statistical analysis of the maximal annual water levels in the Amur at Khabarovksk gage over the observation period since 1896 to 2016 gave analytical expressions for probability distribution functions of the general populations of water levels over the entire observation period, as well as over periods of originally weak (1896–1960) and current (1961–2016) intense economic development of the Amur basin. It was shown that the risk of high floods had decreased recently by half, while the average intervals of their recurrence had doubled compared with the previous period. The intense economic activity in the Amur basin in the recent decades was shown to have caused a decrease in the most likely water levels by 0.5 m. Overall, the hazard of high floods in the valley of the lower reaches of the Amur have decreased, however, accompanied by an increase in the amplitude of water level marks and its extreme values for individual years, as was manifested in the catastrophic 2013 flood. Calculations show that the average recurrence period of this outstanding flood is 144 years and its probability is 0.7%. The obtained data can be used in the development of a system of bank protection and channel-forming measures in the lower reaches of the Amur in the assessment of the anthropogenic impact on changes in water regime and water and floodplain ecosystems of the river.


中文翻译:

渐近极值概率理论在下阿穆尔河高洪灾风险预测中的应用

摘要

阿穆尔河的一个特征是频繁的灾难性洪水,给人口造成巨大破坏,并阻碍经济活动。对自1896年至2016年的整个观察期内哈巴罗夫斯克测绘仪的阿穆尔河年度最高水位的统计分析,给出了整个观察期内以及原本较弱的时期内总水位的概率分布函数的解析表达式(1896-1960年)和当前(1961-2016年)阿穆尔盆地经济发展迅速。结果表明,高洪灾的风险最近减少了一半,而其平均复发间隔比前一时期增加了一倍。最近几十年来,阿穆尔河流域的激烈经济活动表明,最有可能的水位降低了0.5 m。总体而言,阿穆尔河下游河谷高洪灾的危险性降低了,但是,伴随着各个年份的水位标记振幅及其极端值的升高,这在2013年灾难性洪灾中得到了体现。计算表明,此次洪灾的平均复发期为144年,发生概率为0.7%。所获得的数据可用于在阿穆尔河下游开发银行保护和渠道形成措施系统,以评估人为因素对河流水情,水和洪泛区生态系统变化的影响。然而,阿穆尔河下游河谷高洪灾的危险性降低了,伴随而来的是水位标记的振幅及其各个年份的极值增加,如2013年灾难性洪灾所表明的那样。计算表明,此次洪灾的平均复发期为144年,发生概率为0.7%。所获得的数据可用于在阿穆尔河下游开发银行保护和渠道形成措施系统,以评估人为因素对河流水情,水和洪泛区生态系统变化的影响。然而,阿穆尔河下游河谷高洪灾的危险性降低了,伴随而来的是水位标记的振幅及其各个年份的极值增加,如2013年灾难性洪灾所表明的那样。计算表明,此次洪灾的平均复发期为144年,发生概率为0.7%。所获得的数据可用于在阿穆尔河下游开发银行保护和渠道形成措施系统,以评估人为因素对河流水情,水和洪泛区生态系统变化的影响。正如2013年灾难性洪水所显示的。计算表明,此次洪灾的平均复发期为144年,发生概率为0.7%。所获得的数据可用于在阿穆尔河下游开发银行保护和渠道形成措施系统,以评估人为因素对河流水情,水和洪泛区生态系统变化的影响。正如2013年灾难性洪水所显示的。计算表明,这次洪灾的平均复发期为144年,概率为0.7%。所获得的数据可用于在阿穆尔河下游开发银行保护和渠道形成措施系统,以评估人为因素对河流水情,水和洪泛区生态系统变化的影响。
更新日期:2020-05-22
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