Abstract

A cognitive model of optimal control of an ecological–socioeconomic system water body–watershed for the case of the White Sea (Beloe more) and its watershed (Belomor’e) is presented. The model includes parameters characterizing the climate, water and terrestrial systems of the sea and its watershed, the economics, fishery, agriculture, mineral resources, and the population. Cognitive modeling is used to study only qualitative changes taking place in the system at different complexes of conditions. The criterion of optimization is the level of living of the population. The scenario considered include various climate conditions, investments in production assets, industrial and domestic waste treatment, and the development of agriculture and fishery. The cognitive model was used to carry out 10 experiments with different scenarios. For each scenario, operation regimes were chosen to ensure the highest population living standard. The highest living standard will be ensured at the scenario that includes favorable climate conditions (warming above the climate norm for 1960–1990), sufficient mineral resources, and investments. The maximal level of agricultural development can cause damage to the environment. The cognitive model as a means for strategic planning has been developed at a qualitative level.

中文翻译：

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生态社会经济系统水体-流域的最优控制建模：以白海地区为例

摘要

针对白海（Beloe more）及其分水岭（Belomor'e），提出了对生态-社会经济系统水体-分水岭进行最优控制的认知模型。该模型包括表征海洋及其流域的气候，水和陆地系统，经济，渔业，农业，矿产资源和人口的参数。认知建模用于仅研究系统在不同条件下发生的质变。最优化的标准是人口的生活水平。所考虑的情景包括各种气候条件，对生产资产的投资，工业和家庭废物处理以及农业和渔业的发展。认知模型用于在不同场景下进行10个实验。对于每种情况，选择运作制度以确保最高的人口生活水平。在包括有利的气候条件（超过1960–1990年的气候标准），充足的矿产资源和投资的情况下，将确保最高生活水平。最大程度的农业发展会破坏环境。认知模型作为战略计划的一种手段已经在定性水平上得到了发展。