Landslides are the second most frequent tsunami source worldwide. However, their complex and diverse nature of origin combined with their infrequent event records make prognostic modelling challenging. In this paper, we present a probabilistic framework for analysing uncertainties emerging from the landslide source process. This probabilistic framework employs event trees and is used to conduct tsunami uncertainty analysis as well as probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA). An example study is presented for the Lyngen fjord in Norway. This application uses a mix of empirical landslide data combined with expert judgement to come up with probability maps for tsunami inundation. Based on this study, it is concluded that the present landslide tsunami hazard analysis is largely driven by epistemic uncertainties. These epistemic uncertainties can be incorporated in the probabilistic framework. Conducting a literature analysis, we further show examples of how landslide and tsunami data can be used to better constrain landslide uncertainties, combined with statistical and numerical analysis methods. We discuss how these methods, combined with the probabilistic framework, can be used to improve landslide tsunami hazard analysis in the future.

中文翻译：

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关于滑坡海啸的不确定性和危害

山体滑坡是全球第二大最常见的海啸源。然而，它们复杂多样的起源性质加上它们不常发生的事件记录，使得预后建模具有挑战性。在本文中，我们提出了一个用于分析滑坡源过程中出现的不确定性的概率框架。该概率框架采用事件树，用于进行海啸不确定性分析以及概率海啸危害分析 (PTHA)。介绍了一项针对挪威林根峡湾的示例研究。该应用程序将经验滑坡数据与专家判断相结合，得出海啸淹没的概率图。基于这项研究，得出的结论是，目前的滑坡海啸灾害分析在很大程度上是由认知不确定性驱动的。这些认知不确定性可以纳入概率框架。通过文献分析，我们进一步展示了如何利用滑坡和海啸数据结合统计和数值分析方法更好地限制滑坡不确定性的示例。我们将讨论如何将这些方法与概率框架相结合，在未来改进滑坡海啸灾害分析。