Objective. In order to find the quantitative relationship between timing of surgical intervention and risk of death in necrotizing pancreatitis. Methods. The generalized additive model was applied to quantitate the relationship between surgical time (from the onset of acute pancreatitis to first surgical intervention) and risk of death adjusted for demographic characteristics, infection, organ failure, and important lab indicators extracted from the Electronic Medical Record of West China Hospital of Sichuan University. Results. We analyzed 1,176 inpatients who had pancreatic drainage, pancreatic debridement, or pancreatectomy experience of 15,813 acute pancreatitis retrospectively. It showed that when surgical time was either modelled alone or adjusted for infection or organ failure, an L-shaped relationship between surgical time and risk of death was presented. When surgical time was within 32.60 days, the risk of death was greater than 50%. Conclusion. There is an L-shaped relationship between timing of surgical intervention and risk of death in necrotizing pancreatitis.

中文翻译：

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15,813 例急性胰腺炎的手术干预时机与死亡率之间的关联。

客观。为了找到坏死性胰腺炎手术干预时机与死亡风险之间的定量关系。方法。广义相加模型用于量化手术时间（从急性胰腺炎发作到第一次手术干预）与根据人口统计学特征、感染、器官衰竭和从电子病历中提取的重要实验室指标调整的死亡风险之间的关系。四川大学华西医院. 结果. 我们回顾性分析了 1,176 名住院患者，他们有 15,813 例急性胰腺炎的胰腺引流、胰腺清创或胰腺切除术经验。结果表明，当手术时间单独建模或针对感染或器官衰竭进行调整时，手术时间与死亡风险之间呈现出 L 型关系。当手术时间在 32.60 天内时，死亡风险大于 50%。结论。坏死性胰腺炎的手术干预时机与死亡风险之间存在 L 型关系。