Oil palm (OP) is affected by climate change and the cultivation of the crop also contributes to climate alteration. Simulation modelling and large data sets indicated the effects of climate change on OP will be to (a) reduce growth and yields and (b) cause death of some OP. Furthermore, basal stem rot (BSR) caused by Ganoderma boninense, a serious disease of OP, has increased over the past two or three decades because of the disease spreading from infection foci at a greater rate in repeated crops of OP planted on infested sites. The disease may increase further by natural selection of more virulent strains of the fungus. In this paper, increased mortality of OP is predicted based on climate change scenarios for Kalimantan and other South‐East Asian countries with palm oil industries. Climate suitability scenarios for growing OP are also used to assess how BSR will change in the specified region and countries. The data suggest that Kalimantan and the Philippines may be more suitable for growing OP than Thailand and Myanmar, with Papua New Guinea being intermediate. Development of methods for mitigating the effects of climate change on OP is urgently required.

中文翻译：

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加里曼丹和其他东南亚棕榈油国家在气候变化下的油棕生存情况，以及未来的基础茎腐病评估

油棕（OP）受气候变化影响，农作物的种植也有助于气候变化。模拟模型和大量数据集表明，气候变化对OP的影响将是（a）减少生长和产量，（b）导致某些OP死亡。此外，由灵芝boninense引起的基底茎腐烂（BSR）帕金森病是一种严重的OP病，在过去的两到三十年中有所增加，原因是该病从感染病灶中传播出来的疫病在播种地点反复种植的OP作物中传播的速度更快。通过自然选择更具毒性的真菌菌株，疾病可能会进一步加重。在本文中，根据加里曼丹和其他拥有棕榈油工业的东南亚国家的气候变化情景预测了OP的死亡率增加。不断增长的OP的气候适宜性情景也用于评估BSR在特定地区和国家的变化。数据表明，加里曼丹和菲律宾可能比泰国和缅甸更适合种植OP，而巴布亚新几内亚处于中间水平。迫切需要开发减轻气候变化对OP影响的方法。