Efforts to conserve biodiversity increasingly focus on identifying climate‐change refugia – areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable species persistence. Identification of refugia typically includes modeling the distribution of a species’ current habitat and then extrapolating that distribution given projected changes in temperature and precipitation, or by mapping topographic features that buffer species from regional climate extremes. However, the function of those hypothesized refugia must be validated (or challenged) with independent data not used in the initial identification of the refugia. Although doing so would facilitate the incorporation of climate‐change refugia into conservation and management decision making, a synthesis of validation methods is currently lacking. We reviewed the literature and defined four methods to test refugia predictions. We propose that such bottom‐up approaches can lead to improved protected‐area designations and on‐the‐ground management actions to reduce influences from non‐climate stressors within potential refugia.

中文翻译：

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验证气候变化避难所：支持管理行动的经验自下而上的方法

保护生物多样性的努力越来越侧重于确定气候变化避难所——随着时间的推移，这些区域相对不受当代气候变化的影响，使物种能够持久存在。避难所的识别通常包括对物种当前栖息地的分布进行建模，然后根据预计的温度和降水变化来推断该分布，或者通过绘制从区域气候极端情况中缓冲物种的地形特征。然而，这些假设的避难所的功能必须通过独立数据进行验证（或质疑），这些数据未用于初始识别避难所。尽管这样做将有助于将气候变化避难所纳入保护和管理决策，但目前缺乏综合验证方法。我们回顾了文献并定义了四种方法来测试避难所预测。我们建议这种自下而上的方法可以改善保护区的指定和实地管理行动，以减少潜在避难所内非气候压力因素的影响。