Daily Temperature and Bacillary Dysentery: Estimated Effects, Attributable Risks, and Future Disease Burden in 316 Chinese Cities.,Environmental Health Perspectives

当前位置： X-MOL 学术 › Environ. Health Perspect. › 论文详情

Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)

Daily Temperature and Bacillary Dysentery: Estimated Effects, Attributable Risks, and Future Disease Burden in 316 Chinese Cities.
Environmental Health Perspectives ( IF 10.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-26 , DOI: 10.1289/ehp5779
Zhidong Liu _{1,

2} , Michael Xiaoliang Tong ₂ , Jianjun Xiang ₂ , Keith Dear ₂ , Changke Wang ₃ , Wei Ma _{1,

4} , Liang Lu ₅ , Qiyong Liu _{4,

5} , Baofa Jiang _{1,

4} , Peng Bi ₂

Affiliation

BACKGROUND Bacillary dysentery (BD) remains a significant public health issue, especially in developing countries. Evidence assessing the risk of BD from temperature is limited, particularly from national studies including multiple locations with different climatic characteristics. OBJECTIVES We estimated the effect of temperature on BD across China, assessed heterogeneity and attributable risks across cities and regions, and projected the future risk of BD under climate change. METHODS Daily BD surveillance and meteorological data over 2014-2016 were collected from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the China Meteorology Administration, respectively. A two-stage statistical model was used to estimate city-specific temperature-BD relationships that were pooled to derive regional and national estimates. The risk of BD attributable to temperature was estimated, and the future burden of BD attributable to temperature was projected under different climate change scenarios. RESULTS A positive linear relationship for the pooled effect was estimated at the national level. Subgroup analyses indicate that the estimated effect of temperature on BD was similar by age (≤5y or >5y) and gender. At baseline, estimated attributable risks for BD due to average daily mean temperatures above the 50th percentile were highest for the Inner Mongolia (16%), Northeast China (14%), and Northern China (13%). Most of the individual cities in the same regions and most of the cities in the Northwest, Southern, and Southwest regions, had high attributable risks (≥5%). The Northern, Northeast, Inner Mongolia, Northwest, and Southern China regions were identified as high risk for future BD, with estimated increases by the 2090s compared with baseline of 20% (95% confidence interval: 11%, 27%), 15% (6%, 20%), 15% (-1%, 22%), 12% (1%, 19%), and 11% (5%, 15%), respectively, under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. CONCLUSIONS The positive association between temperature and BD in different climatic regions of China, and the projection for increased risk due to climate change, support efforts to mitigate future risks. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5779.

更新日期：2020-05-26

点击分享查看原文

点击收藏

公开下载

阅读更多本刊最新论文本刊介绍/投稿指南11