As a new testing technology, large-scale ship model tests on the sea are advantageous in addressing the scale effect in ship models and in simulating ship navigation conditions. In this study, the uncertainty of a ship model propulsion test on the sea was analyzed using the Monte Carlo method, and the influence of the test environment was quantified. We used a 25 m-long ship model for the propulsion performance test. Based on the procedure recommended by the International Standardization Organization (ISO), several tests were conducted on the Yellow Sea (the northwestern part of the East China Sea). The results demonstrate that the wind and waves in the environment are the two factors that have the greatest influence on the test accuracy. This study will aid the development of sea trials, and the analysis method used in the propulsion test is also suitable for many complex ship tests.

中文翻译：

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基于蒙特卡洛方法的实际海上船舶模型推进试验不确定性分析

作为一种新的测试技术，海上大型船舶模型测试在解决船舶模型中的比例效应和模拟船舶航行条件方面具有优势。在这项研究中，使用蒙特卡洛方法分析了海上船舶模型推进试验的不确定性，并量化了试验环境的影响。我们使用25 m长的船舶模型进行推进性能测试。根据国际标准化组织（ISO）推荐的程序，在黄海（东海的西北部）进行了一些测试。结果表明，环境中的风浪是对测试精度影响最大的两个因素。这项研究将有助于海上试验的发展，