Within the Big Bend region of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, one of the least developed coastlines in the continental USA, intertidal and subtidal populations of eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica (hereafter referred to as “oyster”) are a critical ecosystem and important economic constituent. We assessed trends in intertidal oyster populations, river discharge, and commercial fishing activity in the Suwannee River estuary within the Big Bend region using fisheries‐independent data from irregular monitoring efforts and publicly available environmental data. We used generalized linear models to evaluate counts of oysters from line‐transect surveys over time and space. We assessed model performance using simulation to understand potential bias and then evaluated whether these counts were related to freshwater inputs from the Suwannee River and commercial oyster fishing effort and landings at different time lags. We found that intertidal oyster counts have declined over time and that most of these declines are found in inshore intertidal oyster bars, which are becoming degraded. We also found a significant relationship between oyster counts and a 1‐year lag on mean daily Suwannee River discharge, but including commercial fishery trips or landings did not improve model fit. It is unclear whether declines in intertidal oyster bars are offset by formation of new oyster reefs elsewhere. These results quantify rapid declines in intertidal oyster reefs in a region of coastline with high conservation value that can be used to inform ongoing and proposed restoration projects in the region.

中文翻译：

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墨西哥东北海湾牡蛎种群的变化趋势：随时间和空间对河流流量和捕鱼影响的评估

在墨西哥湾东北部的大弯地区，是美国大陆上最不发达的海岸线之一，东部牡蛎的潮间带和潮间带种群Crassostrea virginica（以下简称“牡蛎”）是关键的生态系统和重要的经济组成部分。我们使用来自非常规监测工作的渔业独立数据和可公开获得的环境数据，评估了大弯地区Suwannee河口的潮间牡蛎种群，河流排放和商业捕鱼活动的趋势。我们使用广义线性模型来评估时间和空间上线样调查中的牡蛎数量。我们使用模拟来评估模型性能，以了解潜在的偏差，然后评估这些计数是否与Suwannee河的淡水输入以及商业牡蛎捕捞努力和在不同时滞上岸有关。我们发现潮间带牡蛎数量随着时间的流逝而下降，并且这些下降的大部分都发生在近岸的潮间带牡蛎条上，而这些牡蛎条正在退化。我们还发现，牡蛎数量与平均Suwannee河日均排放量滞后1年之间存在显着的关系，但包括商业性的渔业旅行或登陆活动并不能改善模型的拟合度。目前尚不清楚潮间带牡蛎条的下降是否被其他地方新的牡蛎礁的形成所抵消。这些结果量化了具有高保护价值的海岸线区域中潮间带牡蛎礁的迅速下降，可用于为该地区正在进行和拟议的恢复项目提供信息。但包括商业性渔业旅行或降落并不能改善模型的拟合度。目前尚不清楚潮间带牡蛎条的下降是否被其他地方新的牡蛎礁的形成所抵消。这些结果量化了具有高保护价值的海岸线区域中潮间带牡蛎礁的迅速下降，可用于为该地区正在进行和拟议的恢复项目提供信息。但包括商业性渔业旅行或降落并不能改善模型的拟合度。目前尚不清楚潮间带牡蛎条的下降是否被其他地方新的牡蛎礁的形成所抵消。这些结果量化了具有高保护价值的海岸线区域中潮间带牡蛎礁的迅速下降，可用于为该地区正在进行和拟议的恢复项目提供信息。