This work evaluates the daily precipitation and mean temperature of eight CORDEX‐EUR11 ERA‐Interim‐driven simulations of EURO‐CORDEX over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) for the period 1989–2008. To this aim, three observational data sets (Iberia01, E‐OBS‐v19e, and MESAN‐0.11) were considered as reference and compared with the models by means of several indices reflecting the mean and extreme regimes over the IP. For precipitation the Lamb weather types were considered to identify synoptic conditions related with higher observational uncertainty. RCMs are able to reproduce the spatial pattern and the variability observed in the IP. However, there is a higher agreement between models and observations for mean temperature than for precipitation, decreasing when extremes are analyzed. For the observational uncertainty analysis, also extreme daily temperatures were considered to obtain a wider picture of this topic. A higher dependence on the observational data set has been found for precipitation than for temperature. This uncertainty is particularly significant when the 50‐year return value is considered for which the observational uncertainty doubles the model uncertainty. Only the wet‐day frequency presents values lower than 0.5 for all seasons, with most of the rest of values reflecting a similar contribution of both components to the uncertainty. In the case of temperatures, the main contribution of the observations has been found when the lower (MAE01) and upper (MAE99) extremes are considered, with values lower than 0.5. For precipitation the observational uncertainty increases when synoptic patterns affecting the Mediterranean Basin are considered, reflecting the difficulty to properly capture the Mediterranean precipitation regimes.

中文翻译：

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伊比利亚半岛上EURO-CORDEX区域气候模型的评估：观测不确定性分析

这项工作评估了1989-2008年期间在伊比利亚半岛（IP）进行的8个CORDEX‐EUR11 ERA中期驱动的EURO‐CORDEX模拟的日降水量和平均温度。为此，将三个观测数据集（Iberia01，E-OBS-v19e和MESAN-0.11）作为参考，并通过反映IP上平均和极端状态的几个指数与模型进行了比较。对于降水，羔羊天气类型被认为是确定与较高观测不确定性有关的天气条件。RCM能够再现IP中观察到的空间模式和可变性。但是，平均温度的模型和观测值之间的一致性高于降水，并且在分析极端值时，一致性会下降。对于观测不确定性分析，还考虑了极端的每日温度，以使人们对该主题有更广泛的了解。已经发现降水比温度对观测数据集的依赖性更高。当考虑50年回报值时，这种不确定性尤为重要，其观测不确定性会使模型不确定性增加一倍。在所有季节中，只有湿天频率的值低于0.5，其余大多数值反映了两个分量对不确定性的相似贡献。在温度的情况下，当考虑下限值（MAE01）和上限值（MAE99）时，发现观测值的主要贡献，其值低于0.5。对于降水，当考虑影响地中海盆地的天气模式时，观测不确定性增加，