Abstract Nutrient loading is an important aspect of reservoir ecosystems that can be affected by climate change. This study explored the effects of climate change on nutrients in the Juam Dam watershed using the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF). Eight Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to investigate the impact of climate change for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Based on an eight-model ensemble, we observed increasing trends in minimum (maximum) temperature at rates of 0.9, 1.8, and 2.2 (0.9, 1.7, and 2.2) °C/period under RCP 4.5 and of 1.0, 2.4, and 4.1 (1.0, 2.3, and 4.0) °C/period under RCP 8.5. Annual precipitation was predicted to increase by 5.0%, 8.2%, and 10.8% (4.8%, 10.5%, and 19.8%) under RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5). The consequences of increased rainfall and temperature were reflected in the annual T-N loadings per unit area that were projected to increase by 14.8%, 16.0%, and 23.1% (16.2%, 18.3%, and 31.7%) under RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5) when compared with historical data (1976–2005). The annual T-P loadings per unit area were projected to increase by 14.8%, 16.4%, and 23.1% (15.5%, 19.3%, and 32.7%) under RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5). These findings were most evident in subwatersheds with a high ratio of agricultural land.

中文翻译：

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考虑气候变化情景不确定性的大坝流域人工湿地最佳面积面源污染负荷预测与评估

摘要 养分负荷是受气候变化影响的水库生态系统的一个重要方面。本研究使用水文模拟程序-Fortran (HSPF) 探讨了气候变化对 Juam Dam 流域养分的影响。代表性浓度路径 (RCP) 4.5 和 8.5 下的八个全球循环模型 (GCM) 用于研究气候变化对 2020 年代、2050 年代和 2080 年代的影响。基于八模型集合，我们观察到最低（最高）温度在 RCP 4.5 和 1.0、2.4 和 4.1 下以 0.9、1.8 和 2.2（0.9、1.7 和 2.2）°C/周期的速率增加的趋势(1.0、2.3 和 4.0) °C/周期，根据 RCP 8.5。在 RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5) 下，年降水量预计分别增加 5.0%、8.2% 和 10.8%（4.8%、10.5% 和 19.8%）。降雨和温度增加的后果反映在每单位面积的年 TN 负荷中，在 RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5) 下预计将增加 14.8%、16.0% 和 23.1%（16.2%、18.3% 和 31.7%）与历史数据（1976-2005）相比。在RCP 4.5（RCP 8.5）下，单位面积的年TP负荷预计分别增加14.8%、16.4%和23.1%（15.5%、19.3%和32.7%）。这些发现在农业用地比例高的子流域中最为明显。5）。这些发现在农业用地比例高的子流域中最为明显。5）。这些发现在农业用地比例高的子流域中最为明显。