Abstract Human activities that threaten ecosystems often vary across small spatial scales, though they can be driven by large-scale factors like national governance. Here, we use two decades of data on global mangrove deforestation to assess whether landscape-scale indirect pressures – cumulative impacts, population density, mangrove forest fragmentation, the global human footprint – and management responses (protected areas) are related to rates of mangrove loss, and whether the impacts of these activities vary by nation. By integrating rates of loss at different spatial scales into a Bayesian hierarchical model, we also assess whether national-scale patterns in mangrove loss are predicted by national regulatory quality. Globally, less fragmented forests had lower rates of mangrove loss. We observed variability among nations in the effect of pressures and management responses on mangrove loss. National regulatory quality mediated how pressures and management interact to influence mangrove loss. Protected areas had a greater benefit for slowing mangrove loss rates in countries with low, rather than high, regulatory quality, ostensibly because countries with higher regulatory quality have greater protection of mangroves outside of protected areas. High population densities were also associated with greater mangrove loss, but only in nations with low regulatory quality. We suggest that efforts to protect mangrove forests will benefit from developing solutions that consider national context and address differences in the effect of pressures and cumulative impacts. Our model can also be applied to other globally threatened ecosystems to understand how variation in local context can affect national-scale conservation outcomes.

中文翻译：

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压力和驱动因素对全球红树林损失影响的多尺度估计

摘要 威胁生态系统的人类活动往往在小空间尺度上有所不同，尽管它们可以受到国家治理等大尺度因素的驱动。在这里，我们使用关于全球红树林砍伐的二十年数据来评估景观尺度的间接压力——累积影响、人口密度、红树林破碎化、全球人类足迹——和管理反应（保护区）是否与红树林损失率有关，以及这些活动的影响是否因国家/地区而异。通过将不同空间尺度的损失率整合到贝叶斯分层模型中，我们还评估了国家监管质量是否可以预测国家尺度的红树林损失模式。在全球范围内，碎片化程度较低的森林红树林损失率较低。我们观察到不同国家在压力和管理反应对红树林损失的影响方面存在差异。国家监管质量调节了压力和管理如何相互作用以影响红树林损失。在监管质量低而不是高的国家，保护区在减缓红树林损失率方面有更大的好处，表面上是因为监管质量较高的国家对保护区外的红树林有更大的保护。高人口密度也与更大的红树林损失有关，但仅限于监管质量低的国家。我们建议保护红树林的努力将受益于制定考虑到国情并解决压力和累积影响影响差异的解决方案。