Seismic hazard analysis is carried out in this study by estimating ground motion for hypothetical earthquakes in the area of Muzaffarabad, Pakistan, with the MT solution of the 2005 Kashmir earthquake. The earth’s topography influences seismic waves by scattering and reflecting it, thereby causing spatial variation in seismic response. Using the moment tensor solution of the 2005 Kashmir earthquake, we perform 25 spectral element method (SEM)-based 3D simulations along major faults in the study area. The SEM model incorporates the topography and homogeneous half-space characteristics. Our results show that, beside topography, the relative location of the source with respect to slopes also has an influence on the observed variation in ground shaking amplitudes. By integrating the mean and standard deviation of estimated ground shaking from 25 simulations, we present a seismic hazard map for the study area. The map summarizes the topographic and potential source location effect on seismic-induced ground shaking in the study area. It provides a classification from hazardous to safe in relative terms and can be used as a guide in earthquake preparedness.

在这项研究中，通过估算2005年克什米尔地震的MT方法，估计了巴基斯坦穆扎法拉巴德地区的假设地震的地震动，从而进行了地震灾害分析。地球的地形通过散射和反射地震波来影响地震波，从而引起地震响应的空间变化。使用2005年克什米尔地震的矩张量解，我们沿着研究区域的主要断层进行了25个基于光谱元素法（SEM）的3D模拟。SEM模型结合了地形和均匀的半空间特征。我们的结果表明，除了地形以外，震源相对于坡度的相对位置也对观测到的地面震动幅度变化有影响。通过对来自25个模拟的估计地面震动的平均值和标准偏差进行积分，我们给出了研究区域的地震灾害图。该地图总结了地形和潜在震源位置对研究区域地震诱发的地面震动的影响。它提供了从危险到安全的相对分类，可以用作地震防范的指南。