Will the vehicle restriction policy maintain a long-term deterrent effect?,IET Intelligent Transport Systems

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Will the vehicle restriction policy maintain a long-term deterrent effect?
IET Intelligent Transport Systems ( IF 2.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-27 , DOI: 10.1049/iet-its.2019.0439
Zhiyong Liu ₁ , Ruimin Li ₁

Affiliation

As one of the efficient travel demand management approaches, vehicle restriction policy has been widely implemented worldwide. However, non-compliant behaviours occur and undermine such a policy. Maintaining a long-term deterrent effect on individuals is crucial. This study conducts an empirical analysis to investigate whether the vehicle restriction policy can prevent non-compliant behaviours in the long run. On the basis of a newly implemented vehicle restriction policy, i.e. odd-and-even policy in Langfang, China, compliance duration that represents the period from the beginning of the policy to the first rule-breaking behaviour of an individual is investigated by applying survival analyses. Moreover, this study proves the existence of inertia in rule-breaking behaviour. Findings reveal that a considerable proportion of vehicles would commit their first offence within a short period of time after the policy coming into force. Inertia would further increase the frequency of rule-breaking behaviour. Thus, vehicle restriction policy can hardly maintain a long-term deterrent effect. This study provides implications for understanding the deterrent effect of transportation policies and offers insights into policy improvement.

更新日期：2020-05-27

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