Budbreak date in grapevine is strictly dependent on temperature, and the correct simulation of its occurrence is of great interest since it may have major consequences on the final yield and quality. In this study, we evaluated the reliability for budbreak simulation of two modeling approaches, the chilling-forcing (CF), which describes the entire dormancy period (endo- and eco-dormancy) and the forcing approach (F), which only describes the eco-dormancy. For this, we selected six phenological models that apply CF and F in different ways, which were tested on budbreak simulation of eight grapevine varieties cultivated at different latitudes in Europe. Although none of the compared models showed a clear supremacy over the others, models based on CF showed a generally higher estimation accuracy than F where fixed starting dates were adopted. In the latter models, the accurate simulation of budbreak was dependent on the selection of the starting date for forcing accumulation that changes according to the latitude, whereas CF models were independent. Indeed, distinct thermal requirements were found for the grapevine varieties cultivated in Northern and Southern Europe. This implies the need to improve modeling of the dormancy period to avoid under- or over-estimations of budbreak date under different environmental conditions.

中文翻译：

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估计欧洲葡萄萌芽日期（Vitis vinifera L.）的物候模型比对

葡萄树的发芽日期严格取决于温度，对其发生的正确模拟具有重要意义，因为它可能对最终产量和质量产生重大影响。在这项研究中，我们评估了两种建模方法的萌芽模拟的可靠性，冷强迫 (CF)，它描述了整个休眠期（内休眠和生态休眠）和强迫方法 (F)，它只描述了生态休眠。为此，我们选择了六个以不同方式应用 CF 和 F 的物候模型，对在欧洲不同纬度种植的八个葡萄品种的萌芽模拟进行了测试。尽管比较模型中没有一个显示出明显优于其他模型，但基于 CF 的模型显示出通常比采用固定起始日期的 F 更高的估计精度。在后一种模型中，萌芽的准确模拟取决于根据纬度变化的强迫积累开始日期的选择，而CF模型是独立的。事实上，在北欧和南欧种植的葡萄品种发现了不同的热需求。这意味着需要改进休眠期的建模，以避免在不同环境条件下低估或高估萌芽日期。