Against the background of global warming and rising sea levels, the threat of typhoon disasters to marine engineering structures has become increasingly serious. Therefore, the research on the design standards of marine environmental elements has become an important topic. In this study, two-dimensional joint distributions of wave height and surge height, surge height and wind speed, and wave height and wind speed were constructed based on the Gumbel–Hougaard (G-H) Copula function according to the data of marine environmental elements under extreme sea conditions from Naozhou observation station in the sea waters of western Guangdong, and the Kendall return period is introduced. The joint return periods, co-occurrence return periods, and Kendall return periods of joint distributions were calculated, along with the latter’s corresponding design values of environmental elements. The results showed that the Kendall return periods and the corresponding design values are between two kinds of traditional return periods. After analysis, the conclusion is that the Kendall return period can reflect the occurrence regularity of marine hydrological events more accurately, and the design values of marine environmental elements calculated under this standard can reasonably lower the investment under the premise of ensuring structural safety. Therefore, the Kendall return period can serve as the new selection for marine engineering design and risk management.

中文翻译：

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基于肯德尔回归期的海洋环境要素风险分析

在全球变暖和海平面上升的背景下，台风灾害对海洋工程结构的威胁变得越来越严重。因此，对海洋环境要素设计标准的研究已成为重要课题。在这项研究中，根据Gumbel–Hougaard（GH）Copula函数，根据海洋环境要素的数据，构造了波高和浪高，浪高和风速以及波高和风速的二维联合分布。从粤西海域Na州观测站的极端海况开始，并介绍了肯德尔返回期。计算联合分配的联合回报期，同现回报期和肯德尔回报期，以及后者相应的环境要素设计值。结果表明，肯德尔的回报期和相应的设计值介于两种传统的回报期之间。经过分析，得出的结论是，肯德尔返回期可以更准确地反映出海洋水文事件的发生规律，在保证结构安全的前提下，根据该标准计算出的海洋环境要素设计值可以合理地降低投资。因此，肯德尔的返还期可以作为海洋工程设计和风险管理的新选择。结论是肯德尔回归期可以更准确地反映海洋水文事件的发生规律，在保证结构安全的前提下，根据本标准计算出的海洋环境要素设计值可以合理降低投资。因此，肯德尔的返还期可以作为海洋工程设计和风险管理的新选择。结论是肯德尔回归期可以更准确地反映海洋水文事件的发生规律，在保证结构安全的前提下，根据本标准计算出的海洋环境要素设计值可以合理降低投资。因此，肯德尔的返还期可以作为海洋工程设计和风险管理的新选择。