Abstract The expansion of the aquaculture industry in the last several decades has raised concerns about potential ecological impacts of the industry. Bivalve culture, particularly mussel farming, relies on naturally occurring plankton and numerous studies have demonstrated top-down control on phytoplankton, increased nutrients through excretion of metabolic wastes and remineralization of faeces and pseudofaeces, and bottom-up effects on predators and scavengers through mussel fall-off. However, results are inconsistent between studies, and hydrodynamic conditions and nutrient availability are thought to play an important role in the magnitude and the direction of the ecological effects of mussel culture on the surrounding ecosystem. We used qualitative network models (QNMs), to outline a general model that integrates these environmental conditions and (1) evaluated the ability of different model configurations to reproduce known responses to perturbations, (2) analyzed the behaviour of key components to contrasting hydrodynamic and nutrient condition scenarios, and (3) identified the most influential features of the derived scenarios. The model that included uncertain linkages to characterize unknown relationships performed best based on predetermined validation criteria; the addition of semi-quantitative information on the relative strength of certain linkages improved accuracy and sign determinacy of outcomes. The presence of suspended mussel culture negatively affected primary producers, zooplankton and deposit-feeders, and had a positive effect on predators and scavengers, especially in low-energy environments. Hydrodynamic conditions were shown to have a major impact on the response of the community to mussel culture, while nutrient availability had a very minor impact.

中文翻译：

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使用定性网络模型评估贻贝养殖对生态系统动态的影响

摘要 过去几十年水产养殖业的扩张引起了对该行业潜在生态影响的担忧。双壳类养殖，尤其是贻贝养殖，依赖于天然存在的浮游生物，许多研究表明对浮游植物进行自上而下的控制，通过排泄代谢废物和粪便和假粪便的再矿化增加营养，并通过贻贝坠落对捕食者和清道夫产生自下而上的影响-离开。然而，研究之间的结果不一致，水动力条件和养分可用性被认为在贻贝养殖对周围生态系统的生态影响的大小和方向中起着重要作用。我们使用了定性网络模型（QNMs），概述整合这些环境条件的通用模型，并 (1) 评估不同模型配置再现已知扰动响应的能力，(2) 分析关键组件在对比水动力和营养条件情景下的行为，以及 (3) 确定派生情景中最具影响力的特征。包含不确定联系以表征未知关系的模型基于预先确定的验证标准表现最佳；添加关于某些联系的相对强度的半定量信息提高了结果的准确性和符号确定性。悬浮贻贝养殖的存在对初级生产者、浮游动物和沉积物饲养者产生负面影响，并对捕食者和清道夫产生积极影响，尤其是在低能量环境中。