Abstract Conservation-motivated eradications may cause unexpected perverse effects, and these undesirable consequences can be difficult to predict due to the paucity of information on species interactions. A probabilistic qualitative approach, which does not require extensive model parameterization, is becoming increasingly accepted and applied to conservation scenarios when information is limited. However, recent work has criticized this approach on philosophical grounds and proposed an alternative non-probabilistic Boolean analysis method, which circumvents the philosophical difficulties. There is a need for exploring the ability of this novel approach for informing conservation decisions. To do so, we applied the first real-world test of the non-probabilistic Boolean approach using a case study of management of Felis catus (feral cat) and Rattus rattus (black rat) on Christmas Island. We also applied the probabilistic approach as a contrast. Our modeling results showed that the probabilistic approach generated ambiguous outcomes, making it impractical to draw management recommendations. In contrast, the non-probabilistic Boolean approach revealed interpretable rules governing species responses, suggesting that while cat management alone is a risky strategy, the risk of negative effects of cat management on native species can be reduced by the addition of rat management. Thus, given limited resources, in combination with cat management it is prudent to prioritize rat management efforts in the habitats of potentially impacted native species of high concern and value. We conclude that the Boolean approach can be very useful when little information is available to model an ecological system and that it provides a way of identifying the potential risks and benefits of management strategies, enabling better informed conservation decision-making in the face of limited knowledge.

中文翻译：

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使用定性建模方法以有限的信息预测根除对整个生态系统的影响。

摘要 出于保护动机的根除可能会导致意想不到的不良影响，由于物种相互作用信息的缺乏，这些不良后果可能难以预测。当信息有限时，不需要大量模型参数化的概率定性方法越来越被接受并应用于保护场景。然而，最近的工作从哲学的角度批评了这种方法，并提出了一种替代的非概率布尔分析方法，它规避了哲学上的困难。有必要探索这种新方法为保护决策提供信息的能力。为此，我们使用圣诞岛上 Felis catus（野猫）和 Rattus rattus（黑鼠）的管理案例研究，应用了非概率布尔方法的第一个真实世界测试。我们还应用了概率方法作为对比。我们的建模结果表明，概率方法产生了模棱两可的结果，使得提出管理建议变得不切实际。相比之下，非概率布尔方法揭示了控制物种反应的可解释规则，这表明虽然单独管理猫是一种风险策略，但可以通过增加老鼠管理来降低猫管理对本地物种的负面影响的风险。因此，在资源有限的情况下，与猫管理相结合，在可能受到影响的高度关注和价值的本地物种的栖息地中优先考虑老鼠管理工作是谨慎的。我们得出的结论是，当可用于生态系统建模的信息很少时，布尔方法非常有用，并且它提供了一种识别管理策略的潜在风险和收益的方法，从而在知识有限的情况下做出更明智的保护决策.