Abstract The spread of SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) is here investigated from an epidemic model considering four pathways of person-to-person transmission. These pathways represent the propagation of this novel coronavirus by asymptomatic and symptomatic infected individuals. In this work, analytical expressions for the disease-free and endemic steady-states are derived. Also, the conditions for eradication of this contagious disease are determined. By taking into account realistic parameter values, the proposed model shows an oscillatory convergence to the endemic steady-state, which means the occurrence of a sequence of peaks in the number of sick individuals as time passes. These results are discussed from a public health standpoint.

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摘要 SARS-CoV-2（严重急性呼吸系统综合症冠状病毒 2）的传播在这里从考虑四种人际传播途径的流行模型进行了研究。这些途径代表了这种新型冠状病毒由无症状和有症状的感染者传播。在这项工作中，导出了无病和地方性稳态的分析表达式。此外，还确定了根除这种传染病的条件。通过考虑现实的参数值，所提出的模型显示了对地方性稳态的振荡收敛，这意味着随着时间的推移，患病人数出现一系列峰值。这些结果是从公共卫生的角度讨论的。