Abstract Assessing the food availability and food security of countries is a critical exercise in which crop simulation models are essential. Application of crop models has been limited often to estimate yield per unit area of one or a few important field crops, whereas what is really required is the total national production of diverse crops including forages, vegetables and fruit trees that compete for limited resources of land and water. In this study a simple crop model (SSM-iCrop2; Simple Simulation Models) was set up for an entire country using a bottom-up approach such that it provides representative estimates of potential yield and other crop properties at provincial level as influenced by climate, soil, management and cultivar. The information is then used to calculate total plant production at province and country levels, as influenced by available land and water resources and by the efficiency of utilizing the resources using the concepts relative yield gap and irrigation efficiency. Iran was used as a case study to develop the modeling framework and illustrative outputs. Development of the framework resulted in accumulation of large bodies of valuable geospatial information and statistics across disciplines that are critical for analysis of plant production at a country level. The framework allows different scenarios of national plant production to be evaluated. This includes assessing the possibility of increasing national plant production via intensification, optimizing water allocation across plant species at province and country levels by changing the cropping pattern, and assessing and prioritizing possible ways of adapting a country's agriculture to limited land and water resources and climate change.

中文翻译：

---

模拟受土地和水的可用性和生产力影响的国家级工厂生产

摘要 评估各国的粮食供应和粮食安全是一项至关重要的工作，其中作物模拟模型至关重要。作物模型的应用通常仅限于估计一种或几种重要大田作物的单位面积产量，而真正需要的是各种作物的全国总产量，包括争夺有限土地资源的草料、蔬菜和果树和水。在这项研究中，使用自下而上的方法为整个国家建立了一个简单的作物模型（SSM-iCrop2；Simple Simulation Models），以便它提供受气候影响的省级潜在产量和其他作物特性的代表性估计，土壤、管理和栽培品种。然后使用该信息计算省和国家级的植物总产量，受可用土地和水资源以及使用相对产量差距和灌溉效率概念的资源利用效率的影响。伊朗被用作开发建模框架和说明性输出的案例研究。该框架的发展导致跨学科积累了大量有价值的地理空间信息和统计数据，这些信息和统计数据对于在国家层面分析植物生产至关重要。该框架允许评估国家植物生产的不同情景。这包括评估通过集约化提高国家植物产量的可能性，通过改变种植模式优化省和国家级植物物种间的水分配，以及评估和优先考虑适应国家的可能方法。