Abstract Binge-watching behavior is modeled for a single season of an original program from a streaming service to understand and make predictions about how individuals watch newly released content. Viewers make two choices in binge watching. First, the onset when individuals begin viewing the program is modeled using a change point between epidemic viewing with a nonconstant hazard rate and endemic viewing with a constant hazard rate. Second, the time it takes for individuals to complete the full season is modeled using an expanded negative binomial hurdle model to account for both binge racers (who watch all episodes in a single day) and other viewers. With the rapid increase in original content for streaming services, network executives are interested in the decision of simultaneously releasing multiple original programs or staggering premiere dates. The two model results are used to investigate competing risks to determine how the amount of time between premieres impacts attention cannibalism, when a viewer takes a long time watching their first choice program and consequently never watches the second program.

中文翻译：

---

病毒式传播、狂欢观看和注意力自相残杀

摘要 对来自流媒体服务的原始节目的单个季节的狂欢观看行为进行建模，以了解并预测个人如何观看新发布的内容。观众在狂欢观看中做出两种选择。首先，当个人开始观看节目时，使用具有非恒定危险率的流行病观看和具有恒定危险率的地方病观看之间的变化点来建模。其次，个人完成整个赛季所需的时间是使用扩展的负二项式障碍模型来建模的，以考虑狂暴赛车手（在一天内观看所有剧集）和其他观众。随着流媒体服务原创内容的快速增长，网络高管对同时发布多个原创节目或错开首映日期的决定很感兴趣。这两个模型结果用于调查竞争风险，以确定首映之间的时间量如何影响注意力自相残杀，当观众花很长时间观看他们的第一选择节目时，因此从不观看第二个节目。