Tom Æ Hollands, Wayne Martindale and Mark Swainson look ahead at the challenges that will face the food system in 2045 and the advances that will be necessary to ensure sufficient resilience .

If international initiatives to mitigate climate change, population health and wealth distribution fall short, there is high potential for 2045 to be a very challenging point for the food system. The Lloyds Register Foundation's 2019 report^[ 1^] reveals a roadmap for global food safety. This report considers the potential advances and challenges facing the food system in 2045. It takes into consideration the value of food safety and food security in a food and beverage industry where the experience and behaviour of all global consumers is a key determinant of our future. The report identifies three core areas that require future effort and investment:

• education and training in developed and developing countries,

• traceability in the food supply chain and development of a broad range of technologies to make food more traceable and, therefore, safer for consumers,

• investing in aquaculture and seafood production for greater food safety and sustainability.

In this article we look into the future to predict the potential impacts of climate change, advancement of digital technologies and new farming strategies on the food system and attempt to identify where resilience currently exists and how this can be built on to ameliorate future crises.

Impacts of climate change

By 2045 global climate change impact could have disrupted everything we currently consider to be a normal part of lifestyle. In an ever more interconnected world, the disruption would be felt globally as we have previously shown in our research on the global food system^[ 2^] . Poverty‐stricken or low income nations, which were close to sea level in the early 21st Century, are likely to have succumbed to catastrophic sea floods and tsunamis. The impact and risks of climate change on dryland agriculture are already being addressed in Gulf states and this has raised the crucial questions of access to food and equality with respect to future distribution of agri‐production^[ 3^] .

Of course, food supply has often been a politically driven resource; in the early 1970s the trading of wheat between the USA and USSR was a political masterpiece of intrigue (The Great Grain Robbery)^[ 4^] . One of the authors (WM) met Earl Butz, Nixon's negotiator and Agricultural Secretary, at Purdue University in 2001. Those wheat negotiations required in‐depth knowledge of international supply chains using the technology of the 1970s, namely Landsat Satellite sensing of wheat failures in the USSR. The issues involved characterise many of the pressures and fears we see today; the removal of wheat trade restrictions in 1981 was highlighted by President Reagan as one of the key contributing factors to the eventual Glasnost and Perestroika.

Trade in agricultural products depends on high quality agricultural land and in 2045 the availability of such land could be a fraction of what it is today due to the variability of weather resulting in drought, hail damage to crops and winds that increase soil erosion and decrease soil fertility. While regions adapt to new arable conditions and practices, they will face significant challenges in tackling the impact of weather‐induced catastrophes that were previously once in a lifetime events.

The time to start strategic planning of agricultural production for the future food system is now and, while it has already begun, a new sense of immediacy in our approach is required^[ 5^] . Heat waves that were once unexpected may not follow seasonal projections and will result in major health sector impacts that are focused on the most vulnerable including the elderly and infirm. Such impacts are likely to be regularly reported in mainstream media and it is not too much of a leap to envisage that by 2045, traffic mega‐queues of stationary smart/digital vehicles (powered down to reduce speeds because of increasing car deaths in mainland Europe) are caused by drivers losing consciousness in response to heat exhaustion.

The removal of wheat trade restrictions in 1981 was highlighted by President Reagan as one of the key contributing factors to the eventual Glasnost and Perestroika.

Without intervention, mass animal extinctions will continue and whole ecosystems will decline and become extinct, for example the Great Barrier Reef could become significantly depleted or lost completely^[ 6^] . By 2045 there could be no more living reefs and unique Mediterranean biodiversity could be lost. The danger of assuming that industrial systems operate without any interaction with ecosystems and biodiversity is evident with the emergence of new food safety risks created by food borne zoonotic pathogens (mostly viral, some bacterial). Risks of new zoonoses are related to changes in regional climates, new animal migrations and different consumption behaviours, which not only affect human life directly but also native species of plants and fauna.

Digital technologies

Food fraud could become commonplace in countries and food supply chains that have not adopted the advanced control mechanisms provided by Blockchain (Distributed Leger Technology)^[ 7^] . Our current regulatory focus is on the first and last link in the Blockchain due to risk displacement, but the Blockchain platform could allow many manual tasks to become automated, such as obtaining new material specification, self‐invoicing (you invoice your supplier with your purchase), self‐ordering (you order your own customer demands) and abolition of payment terms as all procurements are reconciled upon material receipt as well as the VAT mechanism. This all holds much promise and it highlights the current inadequacies in delivering transparency and protecting against food fraud.

By 2045 patterns relating to food safety, quality and legality could be identified through artificial intelligence (AI) ‘watchers and sentinels’ within the Blockchain platform. These systems auto‐calculate mass balance between business material transfers; digital twin micro modelling as well as rolling carbon charges are examples of AI watchers and sentinels. Deployment of these AI methods will increase the ‘headspace’ or ‘bandwidth’ within the supply chain and decrease the need for direct human resource accordingly. This will permit focus on more value adding activity, such as human interaction and system optimisation in the mid part of this century.

Data sharing between organisations (including regulators) could be almost fully transparent in 2045 apart from the very few data sets that are imperative to the organisation's unique selling point (USP) or intellectual property. This sharing of data facilitates robust decision‐making processes and allows for concessions and deviations to be made known and accounted for within the supply chain.

Data can be shared in this system, both up and downstream, which permits substantial reduction in the ‘Bullwhip effect’ (increasing swings in inventory in response to shifts in customer demand along the supply chain), which in 2045 may account for around 9% of total food waste, reduced from 50% in 2025.

This would be the result of AI technologies calculating demand and supply functions, merging multiple data sets that are bespoke and eradicating food waste. Furthermore, AI learning could be pooled into a meta‐system, which would enable different systems to learn from each other and share meta data learnings to further enhance the supporting systems. The development of robotics will advance and become commonplace, especially in Blockchained countries. Manual labour would be rare to non‐existent unless required in a particular niche area that provides a USP. Robotics in 2045 will be proven to achieve high quality standards in relation to food production without the inherent food safety risks, associated human operator health and safety challenges and financial costs. This will create the need for radically different skill sets and knowledge bases than those currently required.

Urban farms

In 2045 many towns and cities could have their own vertical hydroponic farms, which would ensure a fresh supply of local produce to the community, thereby reducing significant amounts of carbon emissions and increasing local fruit and vegetable consumption with a positive effect on community nutrition and health.

This approach is also more affordable, with less distribution, reduced pests and reduced energy balance for production. Nutrition, access and affordability are improved but the way in which we obtain food and beverages will completely change. For wealthy individuals with a high demand for animal protein, factory grown meats will provide an alternative protein delivery system mitigating concerns regarding animal welfare or traditional animal‐born zoonoses. As for access to high quality agricultural land, we must make sure this does not promote the current global food system where ‘meat is only for the minted.’

Distribution of goods and people could change radically and digital technology is likely to be so well integrated or ‘fused’ that a National Transport Service (NTS) is possible. By 2045 private vehicle ownership (business and residential) could be very rare and not a daily requirement. A fleet of NTS vehicles might include electric‐automated carriers, freight carriers, trams, trains and even short distance aircraft, which may be able to reach all areas of the country.

AeroFarms, founded in 2004, is the largest vertical farm in the world

Data sharing between organisations (including regulators) could be almost fully transparent in 2045 apart from the very few data sets that are imperative to the organisation's unique selling point (USP) or intellectual property.

Our aquatic environment has also been heavily impacted by climate change, resulting in migration of species, new pathogens and new hosts for parasites. Although wild sea stocks for historically popular fish, such as pollock, cod, seabass, tuna, haddock etc., are currently significantly depleted, they will be in early recovery in 2045, mainly due to the establishment of methods (in combination with GM technology) for large scale commercial coastal farming of these species.

Among the remaining commercial farming entities, coastal farming of fish will utilise holistic GM technology, from the species of fish to the feed types and nutritional algae additives for enhanced omega‐3 levels. In 2045 this could be humanity's biggest success story in maintaining and growing food security across the planet.

Building resilience

Our world has fundamentally changed since the start of the 21st century; a combination of vested interests, short term policy views and poor stewardship are changing the face of the planet. However by 2045 human ingenuity and worldwide collaboration has great potential to reverse many of these trends and to increase the stability of societies – following decades of mass migration due to commercial, political and environmental pressures. This has potential to build a healthier, more equitable planet and sustainable food systems for future generations. Current media coverage often portrays an industry under pressure, leading to calls to rethink broken food supply chains.

There is no doubt that the restrictions on food supply placed on families and individuals who were at risk before COVID‐19 are now even greater, resulting in calamitous states of health and wellbeing. However, there is a need to examine how the food industry is responding to the crisis and most importantly to bring a sense of proportion to some of the supply problems. Accuracy of information is crucial and AHDB Market Insights has been leading the way in providing data on food system resilience. Retail shopping increased by 20% in the UK in the four week period up until 22 March 2020, during which period supply chains absorbed a meteoric shock but also showed resilience to the increased pressures^[ 8^] . Effort is now needed to identify where resilience is greatest and to locate critical points that can fail.

Extra pressures The COVID‐19 pandemic placed extra stresses on the food supply chain affecting the health and well‐being of many.

A combination of vested interests, short term policy views and poor stewardship are changing the face of the planet.

Conclusions

Future proofing is more than possible in an industry that knows how to implement innovation and agility and it is our duty as experts to identify where actions need to be embedded to improve resilience.

Our own research is beginning to identify critical control points that can enhance resilience in food systems^[ 9^] . We have only discussed some of the potential future outcomes for the food supply chain based on decisions and policies made today. With the global population expanding to 10bn by mid‐century, we need to take actions today to invest in tomorrow.