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Dramatic differences in male and female mortality trends for selected European cohorts over ∼20 years
bioRxiv - Physiology Pub Date : 2021-11-17 , DOI: 10.1101/2020.05.23.111971
Jeremy S.C. Clark , Kamila Rydzewska , Konrad Podsiadło , Thierry van de Wetering , Andrzej Ciechanowicz

Longevity is of considerable interest. Collation of recent data after World War II by the Human Mortality Database allowed analyses, previously unattainable, of modal death-ages for sufficient numbers of selected European cohorts. The aim was to track modes and medians/means (≥60 years old (y)) of all-cause mortality for both sexes. The only highest-quality, large-number Lexis data available were analyzed: from nine countries: Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland; raw-data modes (and medians/means ≥60y, plus thin-plate-spline averages), were analyzed, plus pooled data. Here we show that for cohorts 1880-∼1900 dramatic sex differences existed between death-age changes with all countries except Iceland showing male modal negative trends lasting ∼10-20 years and medians in all countries near-constant or negative lasting ∼10-20 years; whereas females from most countries showed fairly constant positive trends (except Finnish modes and Norwegian medians). For cohorts ∼1900-1919 male and female modal trends were positive (except Dutch and Icelandic cohorts and Finnish females). The net results were that male mortality modes for Danish, Icelandic, Italian, Dutch, Swedish and Norwegian 1919 cohorts were roughly the same as for 1880 cohorts, whereas female death-age modes increased. Results clarify previously knowledge concerning sex differences during this period. Despite improved environment in late adulthood over this period, this did not translate into increased male longevity and earlier events might have sealed their fate, especially in Denmark, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, aand Sweden (and, later, Iceland).

中文翻译:

大约 20 年选定的欧洲队列的男性和女性死亡率趋势的显着差异

长寿是相当重要的。人类死亡率数据库对二战后最近的数据进行了整理,可以对足够数量的选定欧洲队列的模态死亡年龄进行以前无法实现的分析。目的是跟踪两性全因死亡率的模式和中位数/平均值(≥60 岁(y))。分析了唯一可用的最高质量的大量 Lexis 数据:来自九个国家:丹麦、芬兰、法国、冰岛、意大利、荷兰、挪威、瑞典和瑞士;分析了原始数据模式(中位数/平均值≥60y,加上薄板样条平均值),加上汇总数据。在这里,我们表明,对于 1880-~1900 年的队列,除冰岛以外的所有国家的死亡年龄变化之间都存在显着的性别差异,显示男性模态负趋势持续~10-20 年,所有国家的中位数接近恒定或负持续~10-20 年年; 而大多数国家的女性显示出相当稳定的积极趋势(芬兰模式和挪威中位数除外)。对于队列 ∼1900-1919 男性和女性的模态趋势是积极的(荷兰和冰岛队列以及芬兰女性除外)。最终结果是,丹麦、冰岛、意大利、荷兰、瑞典和挪威 1919 年队列的男性死亡率模式与 1880 年队列大致相同,而女性死亡年龄模式则有所增加。结果澄清了先前关于此期间性别差异的知识。
更新日期:2021-11-19
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