The Central Georgia Bear Population (CGP) is the least abundant and most isolated of Georgia's 3 American black bear (Ursus americanus) populations. Beginning in 2011, changes to regulations governing harvest of the CGP resulted in an increase in female bear harvest, creating concern that future harvest could be an important influence on population viability. Hence, our objective was to assess viability of the CGP under various levels of female mortality. During 2012–2016, we used barbed‐wire hair snares to collect bear hair samples from within the range of the CGP in Georgia, USA. We used microsatellite genotyping to identify individual bears and created robust‐design, spatial detection histories for all female bears detected. We fit open population spatial capture‐recapture (SCR) models to the detection histories in a Bayesian framework. We used the Widely Applicable Information Criterion (WAIC) to rank models that varied with respect to sources of variation in detection probability, survival, and per capita recruitment, and used the model with the lowest WAIC to forecast dynamics of the CGP 50 years into the future under various levels of female mortality. We assessed the 50‐year extinction probability under a continuation of mortality levels documented during 2012–2016, and under incremental increases in female mortality above this baseline. The top model included density‐dependent per capita recruitment, annual variation in detection probability, and a trap‐level behavioral response. Abundance increased from 106 (95% CI = 86–132) females in 2012 to 136 (95% CI = 113–161) females in 2013 and remained relatively stable thereafter. Annual female survival was 0.75 (95% CI = 0.69–0.82) and did not vary among years. The per capita recruitment rate decreased over time as density increased, and was 0.49 (95% CI = 0.33–0.66) during the first time interval and 0.29 (95% CI = 0.20–0.38) during the final time interval. Annual growth rate () was 1.28 (95% CI = 1.07–1.52) between 2012 and 2013 but decreased throughout the study, ending at 1.04 (95% CI = 0.93–1.17). Forecasts indicated continuation of the female mortality levels experienced from 2012–2016 were sustainable over 50 years, with the estimated extinction risk being <0.001%. Increasing annual harvest by 5 females introduced a negligible increase in the 50‐year probability of extinction, but harvesting an additional 10 females/year caused extinction risk to rise to 1.15%. We recommend that harvest regulations are structured such that mortality rates remain at current levels or do not increase by more than an annual average of 5 females above levels observed during our study. Furthermore, we recommend that managers continue to monitor the population so that harvest regulations and population models can be refined over time. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.

中文翻译：

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使用空间捕获-捕获模型评估黑熊的种群生存力

佐治亚州中部熊种群（CGP）是佐治亚州3头美国黑熊（Ursus americanus）中数量最少，最孤立的）人口。从2011年开始，对CGP收割法规的修改导致母熊收成增加，人们担心未来的收成可能会对种群生存能力产生重要影响。因此，我们的目标是评估CGP在各种女性死亡率水平下的生存能力。在2012–2016年期间，我们使用带刺铁丝网圈套器收集了美国佐治亚州CGP范围内的熊毛样本。我们使用微卫星基因分型来识别单个熊，并为所有检测到的母熊创建了健壮设计的空间检测历史记录。我们将开放人口空间捕获-重新捕获（SCR）模型与贝叶斯框架中的检测历史拟合。人均招募人数，并使用WAIC最低的模型来预测在各种女性死亡率下，未来50年CGP的动态。我们评估了在2012-2016年期间记录的死亡率持续水平下，以及在高于该基准的女性死亡率增量增长下的50年灭绝概率。最高模型包括依赖密度的人均招聘，检测概率的年度变化以及陷阱级的行为反应。丰度从2012年的106（95％CI = 86–132）女性增加到2013年的136（95％CI = 113–161）女性，此后保持相对稳定。女性的年生存率为0.75（95％CI = 0.69–0.82），并且每年之间都没有变化。在人均随密度的增加，招募率随时间降低，在第一个时间间隔内为0.49（95％CI = 0.33-0.66），在最后一个时间间隔内为0.29（95％CI = 0.20-0.38）。年增长率（）在2012年至2013年期间为1.28（95％CI = 1.07-1.52），但在整个研究中有所下降，最终为1.04（95％CI = 0.93-1.17）。预测表明，2012年至2016年女性死亡率的持续增长在50年内是可持续的，估计的灭绝风险小于0.001％。5只雌性的年收成增加，导致50年灭绝的概率增加可忽略不计，但每年再收获10只雌性，则导致灭绝的风险升至1.15％。我们建议对采摘法规进行结构设计，以使死亡率保持在当前水平或不增加超过我们研究中观察到的水平的5名女性的年平均水平。此外，我们建议管理人员继续监控人口，以便随时间推移完善收割规定和人口模型。