A multi‐century meteo‐hydrological analysis for the Adda river basin (Central Alps). Part II: Daily runoff (1845–2016) at different scales,International Journal of Climatology

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A multi‐century meteo‐hydrological analysis for the Adda river basin (Central Alps). Part II: Daily runoff (1845–2016) at different scales
International Journal of Climatology ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-26 , DOI: 10.1002/joc.6678
Roberto Ranzi ₁ , Eleni M. Michailidi ₁ , Massimo Tomirotti ₁ , Alice Crespi ₂ , Michele Brunetti ₃ , Maurizio Maugeri _{2,

3}

Affiliation

A high‐quality daily runoff time series of the Lake Como inflow and outflow, the longest for Italian Alps, was reconstructed for the 1845–2016 period in the Adda river basin. It was compared with contemporary monthly precipitation and temperature observations and estimated potential evapotranspiration losses. Trend analyses were conducted for daily flow maxima and 7‐day duration minima of inflows into the lake showing a non‐significant decrease and a significant increase, respectively. Although the annual precipitation time series exhibits a non‐significant decrease, annual runoff volumes decrease with a rate of −136 mm⋅century⁻¹, with a significance level of 5%. Possible causes of variability of rainfall and runoff as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Western Mediterranean Oscillation indexes and sunspot activity were also explored. Wavelet spectra analyses of monthly precipitation and runoff show some changes in the energy both at small and large scales and are effective in pointing out phenomena as droughts and the effects of dams' regulation. Conversely, wavelet coherence spectra indicate a weak correlation of NAO and sunspots with precipitation. In addition, the analysis of temperature and potential evapotranspiration tendencies suggests that the decrease of runoff has to be ascribed mostly to anthropogenic factors, including water abstraction for irrigation and increased evapotranspiration losses due to natural afforestation and, only in part, to climatic variability.

中文翻译：

阿达河流域（中阿尔卑斯山）的多世纪以来的气象水文分析。第二部分：不同规模的日径流量（1845年至2016年）

在阿达河流域重建了1845年至2016年期间最高的意大利阿尔卑斯山最长的科莫湖流入和流出的每日径流时间序列。将其与当代每月的降水和温度观测值以及估计的潜在蒸散量进行了比较。对流入湖泊的每日最大流量和持续7天的最小流量进行了趋势分析，分别显示无明显减少和显着增加。尽管年降水时间序列没有显着减少，但年径流量却以−136mm⋅世纪^-1的速率减少，显着性水平为5％。还探讨了北大西洋涛动（NAO），大西洋多年代际涛动和西地中海涛动指数和黑子活动引起的降雨和径流变化的可能原因。对月降水量和径流量的小波谱分析表明，无论大小，能量都有一些变化，可以有效地指出干旱和大坝调节的影响。相反，小波相干光谱表明NAO和黑子与降水的相关性较弱。此外，对温度和潜在蒸散趋势的分析表明，径流减少主要归因于人为因素，

更新日期：2020-05-26

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