当前位置: X-MOL 学术Environ. Plan. B Urban Anal. City Sci. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
A LUTI microsimulation framework to evaluate long-term impacts of automated mobility on the choice of housing-mobility bundles
Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science ( IF 2.6 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-26 , DOI: 10.1177/2399808320925278
Rounaq Basu 1 , Joseph Ferreira 1
Affiliation  

Land use–transportation interaction models can be useful planning support systems to assess the long-term implications of emerging transportation technologies like mobility-on-demand and automated vehicles. We propose an agent-based simulation framework (SimMobility Long-Term) that uses econometrically robust behavioral models to model the potential impacts of accessibility changes in “car-lite” communities on the choice of housing-mobility bundles. Residential relocation and private mobility holding decisions are jointly considered in a sequential simulation modeling approach. Different types of market responses to the car-lite pilot are modeled through various scenarios via assumptions of changes in model parameters, and compared to a baseline where the car-lite pilot is never implemented. A comparatively vehicle-free study area with a low vacancy rate is chosen to obtain conservative estimates of policy impacts. Our findings indicate that initial awareness of the pilot is quite effective in making the study area more vehicle-free relative to the baseline. However, as market effects start impacting housing prices and bidding results, the vehicle-free gains are significantly reduced due to neighborhood gentrification. In conclusion, we highlight how land use–transportation interaction models can be used to explore market dynamics to see where market pressures matter, along with the need to align car-lite policies with market conditions regarding vacancy and car ownership rates.

中文翻译:

一个 LUTI 微观模拟框架,用于评估自动出行对住房-出行组合选择的长期影响

土地利用-交通交互模型可以成为有用的规划支持系统,以评估新兴交通技术(如按需出行和自动驾驶汽车)的长期影响。我们提出了一个基于代理的模拟框架(SimMobility Long-Term),该框架使用经济计量稳健的行为模型来模拟“轻车”社区中可达性变化对住房-流动性捆绑选择的潜在影响。住宅搬迁和私人移动控股决策在顺序模拟建模方法中被联合考虑。通过假设模型参数的变化,不同类型的市场对 car-lite 试点的反应被建模,并与从未实施 car-lite 试点的基线进行比较。选择一个空置率较低的相对无车辆的研究区域,以获得对政策影响的保守估计。我们的研究结果表明,飞行员的初步意识在使研究区域相对于基线更无车辆方面非常有效。然而,随着市场效应开始影响房价和竞标结果,由于社区高档化,无车收益显着降低。总之,我们强调了如何使用土地使用-交通交互模型来探索市场动态,以了解市场压力的重要性,以及使轻车政策与有关空置率和汽车拥有率的市场条件保持一致的必要性。我们的研究结果表明,飞行员的初步意识在使研究区域相对于基线更无车辆方面非常有效。然而,随着市场效应开始影响房价和竞标结果,由于社区高档化,无车收益显着降低。总之,我们强调了如何使用土地使用-交通交互模型来探索市场动态,以了解市场压力的重要性,以及使轻车政策与有关空置率和汽车拥有率的市场条件保持一致的必要性。我们的研究结果表明,飞行员的初步意识在使研究区域相对于基线更无车辆方面非常有效。然而,随着市场效应开始影响房价和竞标结果,由于社区高档化,无车收益显着降低。总之,我们强调了如何使用土地使用-交通交互模型来探索市场动态,以了解市场压力的重要性,以及使轻车政策与有关空置率和汽车拥有率的市场条件保持一致的必要性。
更新日期:2020-05-26
down
wechat
bug