Climate and landscape change are drivers of species range shifts and biodiversity loss; understanding how they facilitate and sustain invasions has been empirically challenging. Winter severity is decreasing with climate change and is a predicted mechanism of contemporary and future range shifts. For example, white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) expansion is a continental phenomenon across the Nearctic with ecological consequences for entire biotic communities. We capitalized on recent temporal variation in winter severity to examine spatial and temporal dynamics of invasive deer distribution in the Nearctic boreal forest. We hypothesized deer distribution would decrease in severe winters reflecting historical climate constraints, and remain more static in moderate winters reflecting recent climate. Further, we predicted that regardless of winter severity, deer distribution would persist and be best explained by early seral forage subsidies from extensive landscape change via resource extraction. We applied dynamic occupancy models in time, and species distribution models in space, to data from 62 camera traps sampled over 3 years in northeastern Alberta, Canada. Deer distribution shrank more markedly in severe winters but rebounded each spring regardless of winter severity. Deer distribution was best explained by anthropogenic landscape features assumed to provide early seral vegetation subsidy, accounting for natural landcover. We conclude that deer dynamics in the northern boreal forest are influenced both by landscape change across space and winter severity through time, the latter expected to further decrease with climate change. We contend that the combined influence of these two drivers is likely pervasive for many species, with changing resources offsetting or augmenting physiological limitations.

气候和景观变化是物种分布范围变化和生物多样性丧失的驱动因素；了解它们如何促进和维持入侵在经验上一直具有挑战性。冬季的严重程度随着气候变化而降低，这是当代和未来范围变化的预测机制。例如，白尾鹿（ Odocoileus virginianus ）的扩张是近北极地区的一种大陆现象，对整个生物群落产生了生态影响。我们利用近期冬季严酷程度的时间变化来研究近北极北方森林中入侵鹿分布的时空动态。我们假设，在反映历史气候限制的严冬中，鹿的分布会减少，在反映近期气候的温和冬季，鹿的分布将保持稳定。此外，我们预测，无论冬季的严酷程度如何，鹿的分布都将持续存在，最好的解释是通过资源开采而产生的广泛景观变化所提供的早期一系列饲料补贴。我们将时间上的动态占用模型和空间上的物种分布模型应用于加拿大艾伯塔省东北部 3 年来采样的 62 个相机陷阱的数据。在严冬期间，鹿的分布范围缩小得更为明显，但无论冬季严酷程度如何，每年春天都会出现反弹。鹿的分布最好通过人为景观特征来解释，这些景观特征被认为提供了早期的群落植被补贴，解释了自然土地覆盖。我们得出的结论是，北部北方森林中鹿的动态受到空间景观变化和时间上冬季严酷程度的影响，后者预计将随着气候变化而进一步减少。 我们认为，这两个驱动因素的综合影响可能对许多物种来说是普遍存在的，资源的变化抵消或增强了生理限制。