Mountain biodiversity is associated with rare and fragile biota that are highly sensitive to climate change. To estimate the vulnerability of biodiversity to temperature rise, long-term field data are crucial. Species distribution models are an essential tool, in particular for invertebrates, for which detailed information on spatial and temporal distributions is largely missing. We applied presence-only distribution models to field data obtained from a systematic survey of 5 taxa (birds, butterflies, carabids, spiders, staphylinids), monitored in the northwestern Italian Alps. We estimated the effects of a moderate temperature increase on the multi-taxa distributions. Only small changes in the overall biodiversity patterns emerged, but we observed significant differences between groups of species and along the altitudinal gradient. The effects of temperature increase could be more pronounced for spiders and butterflies, and particularly detrimental for high-altitude species. We observed significant changes in community composition and species richness, especially in the alpine belt, but a clear separation between vegetation levels was retained also in the warming scenarios. Our conservative approach suggests that even a moderate temperature increase (about 1 °C) could influence animal biodiversity in mountain ecosystems: only long-term field data can provide the information to improve quantitative predictions, allowing us to readily identify the most informative signals of forthcoming changes.

中文翻译：

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温升对山区生态系统多类群分布的影响

山区生物多样性与对气候变化高度敏感的稀有和脆弱的生物群有关。为了估计生物多样性对温度升高的脆弱性，长期的现场数据至关重要。物种分布模型是必不可少的工具，尤其是对于无脊椎动物而言，缺少关于空间和时间分布的详细信息。我们将仅在场的分布模型应用于从对意大利西北阿尔卑斯山脉监测的5个类群（鸟类，蝴蝶，甲壳类动物，蜘蛛，类葡萄球菌）的系统调查中获得的野外数据。我们估计了适度的温度升高对多类群分布的影响。总体生物多样性模式只出现了很小的变化，但是我们观察到物种组之间以及沿海拔梯度的显着差异。温度升高的影响对于蜘蛛和蝴蝶可能更为明显，对高海拔物种尤其有害。我们观察到群落组成和物种丰富度发生了显着变化，特别是在高寒带，但是在变暖情况下，植被水平之间也保持了清晰的分隔。我们的保守方法表明，即使适度的温度升高（约1°C）也可能影响山区生态系统中的动物生物多样性：只有长期的田间数据才能提供信息，以改善定量预测，使我们能够轻松地识别即将到来的最具信息性的信号变化。我们观察到群落组成和物种丰富度发生了显着变化，特别是在高寒带，但是在变暖情况下，植被水平之间也保持了清晰的分隔。我们的保守方法表明，即使适度的温度升高（约1°C）也可能影响山区生态系统中的动物生物多样性：只有长期的田间数据才能提供信息，以改善定量预测，使我们能够轻松地识别即将到来的最具信息性的信号变化。我们观察到群落组成和物种丰富度发生了显着变化，特别是在高寒带，但是在变暖情况下，植被水平之间也保持了清晰的分隔。我们的保守方法表明，即使适度的温度升高（约1°C）也可能影响山区生态系统中的动物生物多样性：只有长期的田间数据才能提供信息，以改善定量预测，使我们能够轻松地识别即将到来的最具信息性的信号变化。