Large (deep-seated) landslides present complex geometries, rock/soil properties, and kinematical behavior. Complex geometries are due to the presence of several sliding zones, while complex properties typically result from the dilation, compression, or fatigue of geologic materials. Kinematical behavior is often episodic, with periods of stability followed by periods of enhanced slope movements owing to shear strength reduction in response to groundwater pressure changes. These mechanisms complicate our capacity in forecasting the long-term activity and thus, the choice of a strategy for hazard management. This technical note introduces a method for predicting the long-term activity of deep-seated landslides based on one-way coupled hydromechanical numerical modelling. The method is applied to analyse the long-term stability of a deep-seated compound slide in the Swiss Jura Mountains. Results indicate that, under natural groundwater pressure changes, the analysed compound slide will continue to move in an episodic fashion in response to groundwater levels in the slope, without developing velocities greater than several centimeters per year. This example demonstrates how one-way coupled hydromechanical modelling constrained by field data is a reliable tool for assessing the long-term activity of deep-seated landslides and helping the management of associated hazards.

中文翻译：

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通过地下水流和边坡稳定性模型预测深部滑坡的长期活动

大型（深层）滑坡具有复杂的几何形状、岩石/土壤特性和运动学行为。复杂的几何形状是由于存在多个滑动区，而复杂的特性通常是由地质材料的膨胀、压缩或疲劳造成的。运动行为通常是偶发的，随着地下水压力变化的响应，由于剪切强度降低，稳定期之后是斜坡运动增强期。这些机制使我们预测长期活动的能力复杂化，从而使灾害管理策略的选择复杂化。本技术说明介绍了一种基于单向耦合流体力学数值模型预测深部滑坡长期活动的方法。该方法用于分析瑞士侏罗山脉深层复合滑坡的长期稳定性。结果表明，在地下水自然压力变化的情况下，分析的复合滑坡将继续以偶发的方式响应斜坡中的地下水位移动，而不会以每年超过几厘米的速度发展。此示例展示了受现场数据约束的单向耦合流体力学建模如何成为评估深部滑坡的长期活动并帮助管理相关灾害的可靠工具。每年的发展速度不会超过几厘米。此示例展示了受现场数据约束的单向耦合流体力学建模如何成为评估深部滑坡的长期活动并帮助管理相关灾害的可靠工具。每年的发展速度不会超过几厘米。此示例展示了受现场数据约束的单向耦合流体力学建模如何成为评估深部滑坡的长期活动并帮助管理相关灾害的可靠工具。