Earthquake early warning would be improved if the final size of an ongoing earthquake could be predicted early in the rupture process. Previous research relies largely on parameters derived from seismic waveforms, resulting in widely varied estimates of how much of the rupture must be complete before final sizes can be predicted. We demonstrate here that incorporating prior information on along‐strike variation in source fault structural maturity helps improve constraints on the earthquake's final size. Using surface slip profiles from 26 large continental earthquakes worldwide, we derive a generic empirical relation between earthquake slip, rupture length, and along‐strike variability in source fault maturity. Using this equation, we fit successive slip profiles developing during each earthquake and find that, on average, we predict the final length and magnitude of an earthquake once it has reached ~20% of its total length. Our findings thus demonstrate a clear determinism in the rupture process.

中文翻译：

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利用源断层结构成熟度信息来改进大地震最终断层长度和幅度的早期估计

如果可以在破裂过程的早期预测正在进行的地震的最终规模，地震预警将得到改善。先前的研究主要依赖于从地震波形中得出的参数，从而导致对可以预测最终尺寸之前必须完成多少次破裂进行广泛估计。我们在这里证明，在震源断层结构成熟度中合并沿走动变化的先验信息有助于改善对地震最终规模的约束。利用来自全球26个大型大陆地震的地表滑动剖面，我们推导出了地震滑动，破裂长度和震源断层成熟度沿走向变化之间的一般经验关系。使用该方程式，我们拟合了每次地震期间形成的连续滑移剖面，发现平均而言，一旦地震达到地震总长度的20％，我们将预测地震的最终长度和强度。因此，我们的发现证明了破裂过程中的明确确定性。