Abstract This paper presents an approach for assessing the failure probability of a road system due to its interaction with landslides induced by the earthquake. The landslide occurrence and failure probability of the road system is estimated by considering the spatial variation of earthquake ground motion. Since significant incoherence in earthquake ground motions is usually observed within the spatial dimensions of large horizontally expanded structures like roads, bridges and dams, it is important to consider the uncertainty due to spatially varying ground motion. The stochastic nature of seismic loading is incorporated in the study by generating a series of earthquake ground motions while the spatial variation of ground motion is accounted for by using cross power spectral density function. Two phase material point method (MPM) is used to simulate the dynamic behaviour of saturated slopes. MPM is able to capture the failure mechanism of slopes under seismic loading and evaluates the travel distance of sliding mass.

中文翻译：

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地震地震动空间变异性对道路系统可靠性的影响

摘要 本文提出了一种评估道路系统由于与地震引起的滑坡相互作用而导致的失效概率的方法。考虑地震地面运动的空间变化，估计道路系统滑坡发生和破坏的概率。由于通常在大型水平扩展结构（如道路、桥梁和水坝）的空间维度内观察到地震地面运动的显着不相干性，因此考虑由于空间变化的地面运动引起的不确定性很重要。地震荷载的随机性通过产生一系列地震地面运动而被纳入研究，而地面运动的空间变化则通过使用交叉功率谱密度函数来解释。两相材料点法 (MPM) 用于模拟饱和边坡的动态行为。MPM 能够捕捉地震荷载作用下边坡的破坏机制并评估滑动质量的移动距离。