Previous studies on tourism land use primarily focus on the spatial distribution, and its related impacts on the environment. Here, we propose a future tourism land use simulation model for mountain vacations based on the cellular automata and Markov chain methods, having verified and simulated tourism land use in Emeishan city at a spatial resolution of 30 × 30 m using remote sensing and GIS. In addition, we introduced a tourism land use intensity index to study the spatial expansion mode of tourism land use. The results have confirmed the validity of the model and demonstrated its ability to simulate future tourism land use. The average growth rate of tourism land use from 2010 to 2015 is 33.36%, and tourism land use will rise from 1.26% of Emeishan city’s land area in 2015 to 2.95% in 2030. Tourism land use shows a spatial expansion pattern along channels from scenic spots to the urban area. The growth of tourism land use in the protected area has an increasing trend when there is no restriction on development, especially in the Eshan region. The simulation results can provide useful implications and guides for regional tourism planning and management.

中文翻译：

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利用POI和元胞自动机模拟旅游用地，用于区域旅游规划

以前有关旅游用地的研究主要集中在空间分布及其对环境的影响上。在此，我们提出了一种基于元胞自动机和马尔可夫链方法的未来山地度假旅游用地模拟模型，并通过遥感和GIS验证并模拟了峨眉山市旅游用地的空间分辨率为30×30 m。此外，我们引入了旅游用地强度指数来研究旅游用地空间扩展模式。结果证实了该模型的有效性，并证明了其模拟未来旅游用地的能力。从2010年到2015年，旅游用地的平均增长率为33.36％，旅游用地将从2015年的峨眉山市土地面积的1.26％增长到2030年的2.95％。从风景名胜区到市区，旅游用地呈现出空间扩展的格局。在没有发展限制的情况下，特别是在峨山地区，保护区旅游用地的增长呈增长趋势。仿真结果可以为区域旅游规划和管理提供有益的启示和指导。