Maritime piracy poses various risks that can cause disruptions, economic problems, injuries of crew members, and damages to ships. This paper proposes an analytical model based on Bayesian network to estimate the possibility of the ship being attacked or hijacked in Southeast Asia. The BN can capture the causal relationships between piracy and influencing factors, which facilitates the probability prediction process. The characteristic of ships, environment and anti-piracy measures are incorporated in the model. Available data from IMO together with expert knowledge is applied to validate the model. The results can provide stakeholders with insights to make decisions under uncertainties.

海上盗版带来各种风险，这些风险可能会导致干扰，经济问题，船员受伤以及船舶损坏。本文提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络的分析模型，以估计该船在东南亚受到攻击或劫持的可能性。BN可以捕获盗版和影响因素之间的因果关系，这有助于概率预测过程。该模型包含了船舶的特征，环境和反海盗措施。来自IMO的可用数据以及专家知识将用于验证模型。结果可以为利益相关者提供洞察力，以在不确定性下做出决策。