Abstract Brazilian pepper (Schinus terebinthifolia) is a tree native to subtropical South America that was introduced into South Africa in the early 1900s as an ornamental plant. The tree has since escaped cultivation and has invaded ruderal and pristine habitats along the eastern coast of South Africa. Brazilian Pepper is also one of the most problematic invasive alien plants in Florida, USA. We modelled the climatically suitable area for this species in South Africa using MaxEnt, with five distinct datasets: incorporating both the native and the invaded range of the species, as well as different backgrounds. Data sets included: only the South African invasive range distribution points (SA-model); South African invasive range distribution points and Koppen-Geiger climate regions representative in South Africa set as the model background (SA, KG model); only the invaded range distribution points in South Africa and Florida (SA, Fl model); (d) the native range and invaded range distribution points in South African, Florida and South America (SA, Fl, SAm model); (e) only the native range distribution points (SAm model). To quantify overfitting and model performance, we evaluated the area under curve (AUC) and omission rates of the models. Models calibrated with both native and invaded range data projected larger areas (> 60,000 km2) of South Africa to be suitable to the plant when compared to when just the native range data were used to calibrate the model (29,677 km2). Model background influence the potential distribution in South Africa. Our results suggest that the species may have undergone a climatic niche extension in South Africa. Importantly the models suggested that Brazilian pepper has not yet reached its full potential distribution in South Africa and may spread into the Western Cape Province of South Africa, where the plant is currently not listed under the country's invasive species regulations. We recommend a change in the South African legislation in an attempt to pre-empt the potential invasion of this damaging invasive species into the Western Cape Province where it is not yet widespread.

中文翻译：

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气候模型表明需要审查南非辣椒 Schinus terebinthifolia 的法律地位

摘要 巴西胡椒 (Schinus terebinthifolia) 是一种原产于南美洲亚热带的树木，于 1900 年代初作为观赏植物引入南非。从那以后，这棵树逃过了栽培，并侵入了南非东海岸的原始和原始栖息地。巴西胡椒也是美国佛罗里达州最成问题的外来入侵植物之一。我们使用 MaxEnt 为南非该物种的气候适宜区域建模，其中包含五个不同的数据集：包括该物种的原生和入侵范围，以及不同的背景。数据集包括：仅南非侵入范围分布点（SA 模型）；以南非有代表性的南非入侵范围分布点和 Koppen-Geiger 气候区为模型背景（SA，KG型）；只有南非和佛罗里达州的入侵分布点（SA，Fl 模型）；(d) 南非、佛罗里达和南美洲的原生分布区和入侵分布点（SA、Fl、SAm 模型）；(e) 只有原生范围分布点（SAm 模型）。为了量化过度拟合和模型性能，我们评估了模型的曲线下面积 (AUC) 和遗漏率。与仅使用本地范围数据校准模型（29,677 平方公里）相比，使用本地和入侵范围数据校准的模型预测南非的更大面积（> 60,000 平方公里）适合该工厂。模型背景影响南非的电位分布。我们的结果表明，该物种可能在南非经历了气候生态位的扩展。重要的是，这些模型表明，巴西胡椒尚未在南非充分发挥其潜在分布，可能会扩散到南非的西开普省，该植物目前未列入该国的入侵物种法规。我们建议修改南非的立法，以防止这种破坏性入侵物种可能侵入尚未广泛传播的西开普省。