Abstract We analyse the impact of two large-scale regime shifts caused by disease incidence or climate change, and associated crop productivity and price changes, on banana-based smallholders in Uganda. We evaluate these farmers' vulnerability and assess the potential of using increased crop diversity to improve their resilience. We further explore trade-offs and synergies between environmental, economic and nutritional outcomes faced by the farmers in their decision making when a regime shift occurs. We simulate the large-scale scenarios with the IMPACT model and use the results obtained to assess their effect at the local level using the bio-economic farm-household model, FarmDESIGN. Our results indicate that climate change can lead to a regime shift that expands revenue variance, increases soil erosion and reduces vitamin A yield for farmers. Banana disease can negatively impact income levels and species diversity. We show that under both scenarios farmers have scope to reconfigure their farms and recover farm performance. Specifically, we discuss the benefits of species diversity; increasing agrobiodiversity by adding new crops increases the farm's adaptive capacity and resilience, allowing for much higher revenues, on-farm crop diversity and vitamin A production. The conceptual approach and the method we developed can be applied to assess the local synergies and trade-offs between crop diversity conservation, nutrition, environmental protection and human nutrition that farmers face as a result of global drivers. Our results offer a further understanding of how biodiverse systems respond to regime shifts, which can inform effective policy design. Our method can be also useful to help farmers manage their farms in a way to better meet their complex needs.

中文翻译：

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以农业生物多样性应对未来的制度变化：乌干达小规模农业的多层次视角

摘要 我们分析了由疾病发生或气候变化以及相关作物生产力和价格变化引起的两次大规模制度转变对乌干达以香蕉为基础的小农的影响。我们评估了这些农民的脆弱性，并评估了利用增加的作物多样性来提高他们复原力的潜力。我们进一步探讨了发生政权更替时农民在决策过程中面临的环境、经济和营养结果之间的权衡和协同作用。我们使用 IMPACT 模型模拟大规模场景，并使用获得的结果通过生物经济农户模型 FarmDESIGN 评估其在地方层面的影响。我们的结果表明，气候变化会导致扩大收入差异的制度转变，增加土壤侵蚀并降低农民的维生素 A 产量。香蕉病会对收入水平和物种多样性产生负面影响。我们表明，在这两种情况下，农民都有重新配置农场和恢复农场绩效的空间。具体来说，我们讨论了物种多样性的好处；通过增加新作物来增加农业生物多样性可以提高农场的适应能力和复原力，从而带来更高的收入、农场作物多样性和维生素 A 产量。我们开发的概念方法和方法可用于评估农民因全球驱动因素而面临的作物多样性保护、营养、环境保护和人类营养之间的当地协同作用和权衡。我们的结果提供了对生物多样性系统如何响应政权转变的进一步理解，这可以为有效的政策设计提供信息。我们的方法也可用于帮助农民以更好地满足其复杂需求的方式管理他们的农场。