Several studies have documented a global pattern of phenological advancement that is consistent with ongoing climate change. However, the magnitude of these phenological shifts is highly variable across taxa and locations. This variability of phenological responses has been difficult to explain mechanistically. To examine how the evolution of multi-trait cueing strategies could produce variable responses to climate change, we constructed a model in which organisms evolve strategies that integrate multiple environmental cues to inform anticipatory phenological decisions. We simulated the evolution of phenological cueing strategies in multiple environments, using historic climate data from 78 locations in North America and Hawaii to capture features of climatic correlation structures in the real world. Organisms in our model evolved diverse strategies that were spatially autocorrelated across locations on a continental scale, showing that similar strategies tend to evolve in similar climates. Within locations, organisms often evolved a wide range of strategies that showed similar response phenotypes and fitness outcomes under historical conditions. However, these strategies responded differently to novel climatic conditions, with variable fitness consequences. Our model shows how the evolution of phenological cueing strategies can explain observed variation in phenological shifts and unexpected responses to climate change.

中文翻译：

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进化的物候提示策略显示出对气候变化的不同反应

多项研究已证明，物候变化的全球格局与持续的气候变化相一致。但是，这些物候变化的幅度在不同的分类单元和位置之间是高度可变的。物候响应的这种变化很难用机械的方式来解释。为了检查多特征提示策略的演变如何对气候变化产生不同的响应，我们构建了一个模型，在该模型中，生物进化了整合了多种环境线索的策略，以提供预期的物候决策。我们使用来自北美和夏威夷的78个地点的历史气候数据来捕捉现实世界中气候相关结构的特征，从而模拟了多种环境中物候线索策略的演变。我们模型中的生物进化出了多种策略，这些策略在大陆范围内的各个位置在空间上自相关，这表明相似的策略倾向于在相似的气候中演化。在位置内，生物通常会进化出各种各样的策略，这些策略在历史条件下表现出相似的反应表型和适应性结果。但是，这些策略对新的气候条件的反应不同，适应性后果也不同。我们的模型显示了物候提示策略的演变如何解释物候变化的观察到的变化以及对气候变化的意外响应。生物经常进化出各种各样的策略，这些策略在历史条件下表现出相似的反应表型和适应性结果。但是，这些策略对新的气候条件的反应不同，适应性后果也不同。我们的模型显示了物候提示策略的演变如何解释物候变化的观察到的变化以及对气候变化的意外响应。生物经常进化出各种各样的策略，这些策略在历史条件下表现出相似的反应表型和适应性结果。但是，这些策略对新的气候条件的反应不同，适应性后果也不同。我们的模型显示了物候提示策略的演变如何解释物候变化的观察到的变化以及对气候变化的意外响应。