BACKGROUND The Cameroon government has set a target that, by 2030, 58% of the population will be using Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) as a cooking fuel, in comparison with less than 20% in 2014. The National LPG Master Plan (Master Plan) was developed for scaling up the LPG sector to achieve this target. OBJECTIVES This study aimed to estimate the potential impacts of this planned LPG expansion (the Master Plan) on population health and climate change mitigation, assuming primary, sustained use of LPG for daily cooking. METHODS We applied existing and developed new mathematical models to calculate the health and climate impacts of expanding LPG primary adoption for household cooking in Cameroon over two periods: a) short-term (2017-2030): Comparing the Master Plan 58% target with a counterfactual LPG adoption of 32% in 2030, in line with current trends; and b) long-term (2031-2100, climate modeling only), assuming Cameroon will become a mature and saturated LPG market by 2100 (73% adoption, based on Latin American countries). We compared this with a counterfactual adoption of 41% by 2100, in line with current trends. RESULTS By 2030, successful implementation of the Master Plan was estimated to avert about 28,000 (minimum=22,000, maximum=35,000) deaths and 770,000 (minimum=580,000 maximum=1 million) disability-adjusted life years. For the same period, we estimated reductions in pollutant emissions of more than a third in comparison with the counterfactual, leading to a global cooling of -0.1 milli °C in 2030. For 2100, a cooling impact from the Master Plan leading to market saturation (73%) was estimated to be -0.70 milli °C in comparison with to the counterfactual, with a range of -0.64 to -0.93 milli °C based on different fractions of nonrenewable biomass. DISCUSSION Successful implementation of the Master Plan could have significant positive impacts on population health in Cameroon with no adverse impacts on climate. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4899.

中文翻译：

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喀麦隆扩大采用液化石油气 (LPG) 进行清洁家庭烹饪对健康和气候的影响：建模研究。

背景 喀麦隆政府制定了一个目标，即到 2030 年，58% 的人口将使用液化石油气 (LPG) 作为烹饪燃料，而 2014 年这一比例还不到 20%。 国家液化石油气总体规划 (Master Plan) ）是为了扩大液化石油气行业以实现这一目标而制定的。目标 本研究旨在估计液化石油气扩建计划（总体规划）对人口健康和减缓气候变化的潜在影响，假设日常烹饪主要持续使用液化石油气。方法 我们应用现有的和开发的新数学模型来计算喀麦隆在两个时期内扩大液化石油气在家庭烹饪中的主要采用对健康和气候的影响：a) 短期（2017-2030 年）：将总体规划 58% 的目标与到 2030 年，反事实的液化石油气采用率将达到 32%，符合当前趋势；b) 长期（2031-2100 年，仅气候模型），假设喀麦隆将在 2100 年成为成熟且饱和的液化石油气市场（采用率 73%，基于拉丁美洲国家）。我们将此与到 2100 年反事实采用率 41% 进行比较，符合当前趋势。结果 到 2030 年，总体规划的成功实施预计将避免约 28,000 人（最少 = 22,000，最多 = 35,000）人死亡和 770,000（最少 = 580,000 最多 = 100 万）伤残调整生命年。同期，我们估计污染物排放量与反事实相比减少了三分之一以上，导致 2030 年全球降温为 -0.1 毫°C。2100 年，总体规划的降温影响导致市场饱和(73%) 与反事实相比估计为 -0.70 毫℃，根据不可再生生物质的不同比例，范围为 -0.64 至 -0.93 毫℃。讨论 总体规划的成功实施可能会对喀麦隆的人口健康产生重大积极影响，同时不会对气候产生不利影响。https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4899。