Exposure to high concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is a leading risk factor for public health in India causing a large burden of disease. Business‐as‐usual economic and industrial growth in India is predicted to increase emissions, worsen air quality, and increase the associated disease burden in future decades. Here we use a high‐resolution online‐coupled model to estimate the impacts of different air pollution control pathways on ambient PM_2.5 concentrations and human health in India. We find that with no change in emissions, the disease burden from exposure to ambient PM_2.5 in 2050 will increase by 75% relative to 2015, due to population aging and growth increasing the number of people susceptible to air pollution. We estimate that the International Energy Agencies New Policy Scenario (NPS) and Clean Air Scenario (CAS) in 2050 can reduce ambient PM_2.5 concentrations below 2015 levels by 9% and 68%, respectively, offsetting 61,000 and 610,000 premature mortalities a year, which is 9% and 91% of the projected increase in premature mortalities due to population growth and aging. Throughout India, the CAS stands out as the most effective scenario to reduce ambient PM_2.5 concentrations and the associated disease burden, reducing the 2050 mortality rate per 100,000 below 2015 control levels by 15%. However, even under such stringent emission control policies, population growth and aging results in premature mortality estimates from exposure to particulate air pollution to increase by 7% compared to 2015, highlighting the challenge facing efforts to improve public health in India.

中文翻译：

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严格的排放控制政策可以大大改善印度的空气质量和公共卫生。


暴露于高浓度的环境细颗粒物 (PM _2.5 ) 是印度公共卫生的主要风险因素，造成巨大的疾病负担。印度经济和工业的一切照旧增长预计将在未来几十年增加排放、恶化空气质量并增加相关疾病负担。在这里，我们使用高分辨率在线耦合模型来估计不同空气污染控制途径对印度环境 PM _2.5浓度和人类健康的影响。我们发现，在排放量不变的情况下，由于人口老龄化和易受空气污染影响的人数增加，2050 年因暴露于环境 PM _2.5造成的疾病负担将比 2015 年增加 75%。我们估计，2050 年国际能源机构新政策情景 (NPS) 和清洁空气情景 (CAS) 可以将环境 PM _2.5浓度分别比 2015 年水平降低 9% 和 68%，每年抵消 61,000 和 610,000 例过早死亡，这由于人口增长和老龄化，预计过早死亡人数将增加 9% 和 91%。在整个印度，CAS 是降低环境 PM _2.5浓度和相关疾病负担的最有效方案，将 2050 年每 10 万人的死亡率降低到 2015 年控制水平以下 15%。然而，即使在如此严格的排放控制政策下，人口增长和老龄化也会导致因接触颗粒物空气污染而导致的过早死亡率与 2015 年相比增加 7%，这突显了印度改善公共卫生的努力面临的挑战。