The ongoing period fertility decline in the Nordic countries is particularly strong in Finland, where the total fertility rate (TFR) reached an all-time low of 1.41 in 2018. We analyse the decrease in Finland's TFR in 2010–17, and assess its consequences for cohort fertility using complementary approaches. Decomposition of this fertility decline shows that first births and women aged <30 are making the largest contributions. However, women aged 30–39 are also, for the first time in decades, experiencing a sustained fertility decline. Tempo adjustments to the TFR suggest that quantum change is part of the decline. Several forecasting methods indicate that cohort fertility is likely to decline from the long-lasting level of 1.85–1.95 to 1.75 or lower among women born in the mid-1980s. Without an exceptionally strong recovery in fertility, Finnish cohort fertility is likely to decline to levels currently observed among countries with very low fertility.

中文翻译：

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芬兰历史最低生育期：人口驱动因素、节奏效应和队列影响。

北欧国家持续的生育率下降在芬兰尤为明显，其总生育率 (TFR) 在 2018 年达到历史最低点 1.41。我们分析了芬兰 2010-17 年 TFR 的下降，并评估了其后果使用补充方法进行队列生育。对这种生育率下降的分解表明，第一胎和 30 岁以下妇女的贡献最大。然而，30-39 岁的女性也经历了数十年来的首次生育率持续下降。TFR 的节奏调整表明，量子变化是下降的一部分。几种预测方法表明，在 1980 年代中期出生的女性中，队列生育率可能会从 1.85-1.95 的长期水平下降到 1.75 或更低。如果生育能力没有异常强劲的恢复，