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Assessing drought conditions through temporal pattern, spatial characteristic and operational accuracy indicated by SPI and SPEI: case analysis for Peninsular Malaysia
Natural Hazards ( IF 3.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-20 , DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04072-y
K. F. Fung , Y. F. Huang , C. H. Koo

A strong understanding of severe drought conditions is important for its mitigation and damage alleviation. Given the Peninsular Malaysia’s drought vulnerability and its progressively increasing temperatures in the future, this study assessed the significance of temperature for the drought formation through temporal pattern, spatial characteristic and operational accuracy indicated by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at the timescales of 1-, 3- and 6-month. Temporal analyses of drought frequency and fluctuations of the SPI and SPEI showed similar changes in moisture responsiveness over the increasing timescales. However, in terms of the number of dry months, the two indices showed different trends, consequential of the influence of temperature in the SPEI. The interchangeability of the two indices was confirmed through spatial variation analysis of drought frequency, mean drought duration, mean drought severity and mean drought peak. From an occurrence, duration and onset detection accuracy consideration, the SPI is better for the 1-month short-term drought, while the SPEI is better for the 3-month mid-term and 6-month long-term droughts. This is a result of the increased significance of temperature in drought formations. Further evaluations on drought severity also showed that the SPEI had better description of the long-term drought over Peninsular Malaysia during the 1997/1998 and 2015/2016 El-Nino drought events.



中文翻译:

通过SPI和SPEI指示的时间格局,空间特征和运行精度评估干旱状况:马来西亚半岛的案例分析

对严重干旱条件的深入了解对于缓解和减轻损害很重要。考虑到马来西亚半岛的干旱脆弱性以及未来气温会逐渐升高,本研究通过标准降水指数(SPI)和标准降水蒸散指数表明的时间格局,空间特征和运行精度,评估了温度对干旱形成的重要性。 (SPEI)在1个月,3个月和6个月的时间范围内。干旱频率的时间分析和SPI和SPEI的波动表明,随着时间的推移,水分响应性也发生了类似的变化。但是,就干旱月份的数量而言,这两个指数显示出不同的趋势,从而影响了SPEI中温度的影响。通过干旱频率,平均干旱持续时间,平均干旱严重程度和平均干旱高峰的空间变化分析,确认了这两个指标的互换性。从发生的时间,持续时间和开始检测的准确性考虑,SPI对于1个月的短期干旱较好,而SPEI对于3个月的中期和6个月长期干旱更好。这是温度在干旱地层中重要性增加的结果。对干旱严重程度的进一步评估还表明,SPEI更好地描述了1997/1998年和2015/2016年El-Nino干旱事件期间马来西亚半岛的长期干旱。考虑到持续时间和开始检测的准确性,对于1个月的短期干旱,SPI较好,而对于3个月的中期和6个月的长期干旱,SPII更好。这是温度在干旱地层中重要性提高的结果。对干旱严重程度的进一步评估还表明,SPEI更好地描述了1997/1998年和2015/2016年El-Nino干旱事件期间马来西亚半岛的长期干旱。考虑到持续时间和起始检测精度,SPI对于1个月的短期干旱较好,而SPEI对于3个月的中期和6个月长期干旱更好。这是温度在干旱地层中重要性增加的结果。对干旱严重程度的进一步评估还表明,SPEI更好地描述了1997/1998年和2015/2016年El-Nino干旱事件期间马来西亚半岛的长期干旱。

更新日期:2020-05-20
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