The failure of aeroengine rotor will cause a great threat to the flight safety. A new risk assessment model to assess the possibility and severity of failure of aeroengine rotor is presented addressing the problems that its failure samples are not sufficient and that early potential failures are not easy to recognize. The key point of this model is to determine the risk mechanism with diverse failures, failure phase, failure process, historical failure time, and check interval. The risk mechanism is to determine the failure is in the state of relevant failure or not. The failure phases are divided from initial operational state to potential failure and eventually developed to functional failure. The failure process is to confirm possible cascading failure of parts at the same level or of systems. Historical failure time is useful to describe the tendency of failure in the future by Weibull distribution, which is very suitable to depict the rule of mechanical parts failure. Considering check intervals makes the model more complete. These factors to be considered in risk modeling are complete. The relationship has been simulated between failure process and check interval of engine rotor. The risk assessment flowchart of engine rotor has been established after determining failure correlation including nonrelevant failure and relevant failure to another part. The primary failure probability has been predicted through Monte Carlo simulation. In the case of aircraft bursting into flames due to fuel tank breakdown resulted from turbine disk debris, the probability and process model of relevant turbine debris failure have been established through the cartridge receiver, airfoil, fuel tank in sequence. The relevant failure risk of engine part has been evaluated to ensure the safe operation of aeroengine. The aeroengine rotor failure risk model will have great significance in eliminating potential failure and reducing sudden failure.

中文翻译：

---

航空发动机转子故障概率风险评估研究

航空发动机转子的故障将对飞行安全造成极大威胁。针对航空发动机转子失效样本不充分、早期潜在失效不易识别等问题，提出了一种新的风险评估模型，用于评估航空发动机转子失效的可能性和严重程度。该模型的关键在于确定具有不同故障、故障阶段、故障过程、历史故障时间和检查间隔的风险机制。风险机制是确定故障是否处于相关故障状态。故障阶段分为从初始操作状态到潜在故障并最终发展为功能故障。失效过程是确认同级零件或系统可能发生的级联失效。历史失效时间有助于用威布尔分布来描述未来失效的趋势，非常适合描述机械零件失效的规律。考虑检查间隔使模型更加完整。这些在风险建模中要考虑的因素是完整的。模拟了发动机转子失效过程与检查间隔之间的关系。在确定故障相关性后，建立了发动机转子的风险评估流程图，包括非相关故障和与其他部件相关的故障。主要故障概率已通过蒙特卡罗模拟进行预测。在飞机因涡轮盘碎片导致油箱损坏而起火的情况下，通过筒式接收器、翼型件、油箱依次建立了相关涡轮碎片故障的概率和过程模型。对发动机部分的相关故障风险进行了评估，以确保航空发动机的安全运行。航空发动机转子故障风险模型对于消除潜在故障和减少突发故障具有重要意义。