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Compound Drought and Heatwaves at a Global Scale: The Role of Natural Climate Variability‐Associated Synoptic Patterns and Land‐Surface Energy Budget Anomalies
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres ( IF 3.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-20 , DOI: 10.1029/2019jd031943
Sourav Mukherjee 1 , Moetasim Ashfaq 2 , Ashok Kumar Mishra 1
Affiliation  

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events have garnered much attention in recent studies. However, thus far, the identification of such events is oversimplified, and their association with natural climate variability is not fully explored. Here, we derive anomalies in the weekly self‐calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc_PDSI) and daily maximum temperatures to identify CDHW events from 1982 to 2016 over 26 climate regions across the globe. Using a Poisson Generalized Linear Model (GLM), we analyze yearly occurrences of seasonal CDHW events and their association with the warm and cold phases of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). ENSO exhibits robust association with CDHW events over the Southern Hemisphere during the austral summer and fall, while PDO influences their occurrences over the Western North America in the Northern Hemisphere during the boreal summer, which is supported by the composites of anomalies in the atmospheric circulations and surface energy budget. However, NAO association with CDHW events is relatively weak. The CDHW occurrence over other regions is driven by a combination of these large‐scale natural forcing. Our analyses also highlight that the cooccurrence of weekly to submonthly scale anomalies in the observed temperature and precipitation may not be always aligned between the observations and the reanalysis. Therefore, caution must be exercised while explaining such observed anomalies on the basis of reanalysis‐based circulations and surface energy budget. Overall, our analyses provide a new insight towards concurrent extremes and should help foster research efforts in this area.

中文翻译:

全球范围的复合干旱和热浪:与自然气候变化相关的天气模式和陆地表面能量收支异常的作用

在最近的研究中,复合干旱和热浪(CDHW)事件备受关注。但是,到目前为止,对此类事件的识别过于简单,并且还没有充分探讨它们与自然气候变异性的关系。在这里,我们得出每周自校准的Palmer干旱严重程度指数(sc_PDSI)和每日最高温度的异常值,以识别1982年至2016年全球26个气候区的CDHW事件。使用泊松广义线性模型(GLM),我们分析了季节性CDHW事件的年度发生及其与厄尔尼诺南部涛动(ENSO),太平洋年代际涛动(PDO)和北大西洋涛动(NAO)的温暖和寒冷阶段的关联。ENSO与南半球夏季和秋季南半球的CDHW事件密切相关,而PDO则在北半球夏季影响它们在北半球西北部的发生,这受到大气环流和地表能量收支异常的综合支持。但是,NAO与CDHW事件的关联相对较弱。这些区域的CDHW发生是由这些大规模自然强迫共同作用驱动的。我们的分析还强调,观测到的温度和降水在每周至每个月以下规模异常的同时发生可能并不总是与观测结果和重新分析一致。因此,在基于重新分析的环流和地表能量收支解释此类观测到的异常时,必须谨慎行事。总体,
更新日期:2020-05-20
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