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Probabilistic seismic multi-hazard loss estimation of Iran gas trunklines
Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-20 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2020.104176
Saeideh Farahani , Behrouz Behnam , Ahmad Tahershamsi

The location of Iran in addition to holding the world's second-largest gas reserves, makes this country an important transporter of natural gas in the world. Moreover, Iran is a country that suffers from hazards associated with frequent destructive earthquakes, which can severely damage buried gas transmission networks, different losses correspond to individuals, social, environmental, and the property is expected. Therefore, it is essential to identify potential seismic hazards and assess their risk will be induced to the country. This paper is performing a comprehensive probabilistic loss assessment of the entire network of the Iran Gas Trunklines (IGAT) due to seismic multi-hazard failure using GIS-based analyses and the HAZUS methodology proposed by FEMA. In the current study, all kinds of seismic hazards are considered for analyzing the IGAT as a spatially-distributed infrastructure for being exhaustive. As a result, seismic hazard maps, repair rate maps, the IGAT expected damage state map, and the IGAT economic loss map are presented. As an example of the outputs of this study, the economic loss of the IGAT is predicted by up to 380 US dollars per segment, which is related to the most vulnerable segments of the pipelines. The outputs of the current research not only can help to plan for mitigating the probable seismic losses but also can help anyone, who are involved in designing and developing new gas transmission lines, to design new trunklines with a more degree of safety.



中文翻译:

伊朗天然气干线的概率地震多灾损失估算

伊朗的地理位置不仅拥有世界第二大天然气储量,还使该国成为世界上重要的天然气运输国。此外,伊朗是一个遭受与频繁破坏性地震有关的危害的国家,该地震可能严重破坏埋藏的天然气传输网络,不同的损失对应于个人,社会,环境和财产。因此,必须确定潜在的地震危害并评估其潜在风险。本文使用基于GIS的分析和FEMA提出的HAZUS方法,对由于地震多灾而造成的伊朗天然气干线(IGAT)整个网络进行了全面的概率损失评估。在目前的研究中 考虑将各种地震危险性作为整体上分析IGAT的空间分布基础结构进行分析。结果,给出了地震危险图,修复率图,IGAT预期破坏状态图和IGAT经济损失图。作为本研究结果的一个示例,预计IGAT的经济损失为每段380美元,这与管道中最脆弱的段有关。当前研究的结果不仅可以帮助减轻可能的地震损失,而且还可以帮助参与设计和开发新的天然气传输线的任何人设计更高安全性的新干线。给出了IGAT预期损害状态图和IGAT经济损失图。作为本研究结果的一个示例,预计IGAT的经济损失为每段380美元,这与管道中最脆弱的段有关。当前研究的结果不仅可以帮助减轻可能的地震损失,而且还可以帮助参与设计和开发新的天然气传输线的任何人设计更高安全性的新干线。给出了IGAT预期损害状态图和IGAT经济损失图。作为本研究结果的一个示例,预计IGAT的经济损失为每段380美元,这与管道中最脆弱的段有关。当前研究的结果不仅可以帮助减轻可能的地震损失,而且还可以帮助参与设计和开发新的天然气传输线的任何人设计更高安全性的新干线。

更新日期:2020-05-20
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