Abstract Climate change will alter precipitation patterns across the world increasing drought risk to forests in some areas, especially where summer precipitation is reduced. Effective management of this risk requires quantified information on the probabilities and consequences of drought to support policy and strategic decisions on the choice of tree species that will provide drought resilience and ensure continued timber supply. Here we define a new approach to delivering this information to underpin management decisions on species choice for restocking. We derive location-specific risk versus return analyses, for twenty commercial timber species in Scotland, by quantifying the impact of drought risk under a high emission scenario on potential return, modelled as change in baseline volume of timber production (yield in m3 ha−1). We find that the current potential yield of Sitka spruce is likely to be sufficiently high to compensate for its relatively high drought susceptibility compared to alternative species, modelled over a new 50-year rotation. In regions projected to experience increased drought risk - particularly central and eastern areas of Scotland - the higher drought tolerance of some species means that they are likely to be viable alternatives to Sitka spruce, based on a threshold productivity which we set for the purposes of this analysis as ≥90% of predicted Sitka spruce yield. Since species diversification is a potential strategy to increase forest resilience against other risks, such as those from pest and diseases, our analysis provides a framework within which these regional decisions can be made. Risk management strategies should be introduced which include the risk from drought to commercial softwood plantations and thereby help protect timber volume production. The modelling approach outlined could be adapted to compare timber species in other regions where comparable data are available.

中文翻译：

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木材生产的干旱风险——苏格兰商业针叶树物种的风险与回报比较

摘要 气候变化将改变世界各地的降水模式，增加某些地区森林的干旱风险，尤其是夏季降水减少的地区。有效管理这种风险需要有关干旱概率和后果的量化信息，以支持有关树种选择的政策和战略决策，从而提供抗旱能力并确保持续的木材供应。在这里，我们定义了一种新方法来提供这些信息，以支持关于重新放养物种选择的管理决策。我们通过量化高排放情景下干旱风险对潜在回报的影响，为苏格兰的 20 种商业木材品种推导出特定地点的风险与回报分析，建模为木材生产基线量的变化（以 m3 ha−1 为单位的产量） ）。我们发现，与替代物种相比，锡特卡云杉目前的潜在产量可能足够高，以补偿其相对较高的干旱敏感性，以新的 50 年轮换为模型。在预计干旱风险增加的地区 - 特别是苏格兰中部和东部地区 - 根据我们为此目的设定的阈值生产力，某些物种的较高耐旱性意味着它们可能是锡特卡云杉的可行替代品分析为 ≥ 90% 的预测锡特卡云杉产量。由于物种多样化是提高森林抵御其他风险（例如病虫害风险）的潜在战略，我们的分析提供了一个框架，可以在其中做出这些区域决策。应引入风险管理策略，其中包括干旱对商业软木种植园的风险，从而有助于保护木材产量。概述的建模方法可用于比较其他有可比数据的地区的木材种类。