Abstract Conservation translocations – the intentional movement of individuals from one area to another for conservation purposes – provide a potential response to climate change, but can be costly and risky. To help improve translocation outcomes and assess their feasibility as a climate adaptation tool, we analyzed past conservation translocations (176 bird species at 680 sites globally) as a proxy for future efforts. To determine predictors of annual survival of released birds, we used generalized linear mixed models. Species with larger bodies and relative brain size had higher survival. Survival was also higher in protected areas, with subsequent releases at a site, for more recent years, and where the initial cause of decline was removed (n = 435 releases). Of particular relevance to climate-motivated translocations, longer distance translocations decreased survival; there was no evidence that greater climate differences between source and release sites (n = 117 releases), or releases beyond the indigenous range (“managed relocation”, n = 435 releases), reduced survival. We also assessed how reproduction varied with release rates (birds/year) and species' generation lengths. Species with long generation lengths released at high rates had similar reproductive success to species with short generation lengths released at low rates. These findings can improve conservation translocation decisions by informing expected outcomes for target species, and identifying site features and management practices that maximize the likelihood of success. We also provide an empirical assessment of potential challenges of using conservation translocations in response to climate change, including evidence that longer distance translocations may be less feasible than shorter distance translocations.

中文翻译：

---

过去禽类易地结果的预测因素为气候变化下未来努力的可行性提供了依据

摘要 保护易位——出于保护目的将个人从一个地区有意转移到另一个地区——提供了对气候变化的潜在响应，但可能代价高昂且风险大。为了帮助改善易地结果并评估其作为气候适应工具的可行性，我们分析了过去的保护易地（全球 680 个地点的 176 种鸟类）作为未来努力的替代。为了确定放生鸟类年存活率的预测因子，我们使用了广义线性混合模型。体型较大、脑容量相对较大的物种存活率较高。保护区的存活率也更高，在最近几年在一个地点随后释放，并且消除了最初的下降原因（n = 435 释放）。与气候驱动的易位特别相关，更长的距离易位降低了存活率；没有证据表明来源和释放地点之间更大的气候差异（n = 117 次释放）或超出本地范围的释放（“管理迁移”，n = 435 次释放）会降低存活率。我们还评估了繁殖率如何随释放率（鸟类/年）和物种的世代长度而变化。以高速率释放的长代长度的物种与以低速率释放的短代长度的物种具有相似的繁殖成功率。这些发现可以通过告知目标物种的预期结果，并确定使成功可能性最大化的地点特征和管理实践来改进保护易地决策。