Natural ecosystems are characterized as dynamic systems that evolve through natural patterns of disturbance. Land managers can work within this system of natural disturbance by applying the concept of natural variability to their management plans. Land management challenges typically stem from infrequent and severe disturbances, like hurricanes, where resource management and conservation implications are a result of significant changes to a landscape’s patch dynamics. A frequently used strategy for overcoming these challenges is co-management. Since cooperative management requires collaboration across sectors, institutional and organization integration must be approached strategically. The importance of developing agreement on shared issues makes finding an effective consensus-building process critical. This study utilized the Delphi technique to develop consensus and identify the most significant post-hurricane impacts experienced by land managers following Hurricane Irma. We purposively selected a panel of 24 land managers that represented multiple sectors including county government, non-governmental organizations, and state and federal agencies. The study used a series of three online surveys, which were validated using an expert panel of evaluators, land managers, survey designers and natural resource educators. The panel achieved consensus on 5 post-hurricane impacts that they identified to have a significant effect on achieving their land management goals. The Delphi technique demonstrated to be a valuable process for gaining input from a diverse set of experts in the identification of agreed upon challenges to land management that resulted from extreme weather events. Our results serve as a foundation for discussions on management strategies to address extreme natural disturbances.

自然生态系统的特征是通过自然扰动模式演变的动态系统。土地管理人员可以通过将自然易变性概念应用到他们的管理计划中来在这种自然干扰系统内工作。土地管理方面的挑战通常源于罕见和严重的干扰，例如飓风，其资源管理和保护意义是景观斑块动态发生重大变化的结果。克服这些挑战的常用策略是共同管理。由于合作管理需要跨部门的协作，因此必须从战略上实现机构和组织的整合。在共同问题上达成协议的重要性使得找到有效的建立共识的过程变得至关重要。这项研究利用德尔菲技术来达成共识，并确定飓风艾尔玛之后土地管理人员遭受的最重大的飓风后影响。我们有目的地选择了一个由24名土地经理组成的小组，他们代表多个部门，包括县政府，非政府组织以及州和联邦机构。该研究使用了一系列的三个在线调查，并由评估员，土地经理，调查设计师和自然资源教育者组成的专家小组进行了验证。该小组就飓风后5种影响达成共识，他们认为这对实现其土地管理目标具有重大影响。事实证明，Delphi技术是一个宝贵的过程，可以从众多专家那里获取输入信息，以识别由极端天气事件导致的土地管理商定的挑战。我们的研究结果为讨论应对极端自然干扰的管理策略奠定了基础。