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Climate change attribution and the economic costs of extreme weather events: a study on damages from extreme rainfall and drought
Climatic Change ( IF 4.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-20 , DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02729-y
David J. Frame , Suzanne M. Rosier , Ilan Noy , Luke J. Harrington , Trevor Carey-Smith , Sarah N. Sparrow , Dáithí A. Stone , Samuel M. Dean

An important and under-quantified facet of the risks associated with human-induced climate change emerges through extreme weather. In this paper, we present an initial attempt to quantify recent costs related to extreme weather due to human interference in the climate system, focusing on economic costs arising from droughts and floods in New Zealand during the decade 2007–2017. We calculate these using previously collected information about the damages and losses associated with past floods and droughts, and estimates of the “fraction of attributable risk” that characterizes each event. The estimates we obtain are not comprehensive, and almost certainly represent an underestimate of the full economic costs of climate change, notably chronic costs associated with long-term trends. However, the paper shows the potential for developing a new stream of information that is relevant to a range of stakeholders and research communities, especially those with an interest in the aggregation of the costs of climate change or the identification of specific costs associated with potential liability.

中文翻译:

极端天气事件的气候变化归因和经济成本:关于极端降雨和干旱损害的研究

与人为气候变化相关的风险的一个重要且未量化的方面出现在极端天气中。在本文中,我们初步尝试量化由于人类对气候系统的干扰而导致的与极端天气相关的近期成本,重点关注 2007-2017 年间新西兰干旱和洪水造成的经济成本。我们使用先前收集的有关与过去洪水和干旱相关的损害和损失的信息以及对表征每个事件的“归因风险部分”的估计来计算这些。我们获得的估计并不全面,几乎可以肯定是低估了气候变化的全部经济成本,尤其是与长期趋势相关的长期成本。然而,
更新日期:2020-05-20
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