During the last century, the coyote (Canis latrans) has increased its distribution in Central America. Before the 1980s, it had not been recorded in Panama. New records show that coyotes have crossed the Panama Canal, indicating that continues to expand; therefore, there is a possibility that it will reach northern South America. Our objectives were to identify potential coyote colonization routes to South America, and the variables that favor its expansion. We hypothesized that habitat fragmentation benefits coyote expansion. We applied 7 algorithms to model the potential distribution of the coyote, using 196 presence records and 12 variables. The models with better performance were used to generate a consensus model. Using our consensus model and the areas with highest probability of presence, a potential colonization route was generated between Central America and northern South America. This route lies through southern Costa Rica, along the Pacific coast of Panama to the south, to the Andean mountains in northern Colombia. The variables that explained potential coyote distribution were human population density, altitude, and percentage of crops with positive influence, and tropical broadleaf forests with negative influence. These results indicate that human activities and deforestation are related to coyote distribution expansion. Actions can be implemented within the identified route to improve environmental management, in order to avoid the presence of the coyote in the ecosystems of northern South America.

中文翻译：

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南美的土狼（Canis latrans）：潜在的殖民路线。

在上个世纪，土狼（Canis latrans）增加了其在中美洲的分布。在1980年代之前，它尚未在巴拿马记录下来。新的记录显示，土狼已经越过了巴拿马运河，这表明它还在继续扩大。因此，有可能到达南美北部。我们的目标是确定通往南美洲的潜在土狼定居路线，以及有助于其扩展的变量。我们假设栖息地破碎化有利于土狼扩张。我们使用196个存在记录和12个变量，应用了7种算法对土狼的潜在分布进行建模。具有更好性能的模型用于生成共识模型。使用我们的共识模型和存在概率最高的地区，在中美洲和南美洲北部之间产生了潜在的殖民化路线。这条路线穿过哥斯达黎加南部，沿着巴拿马的太平洋海岸向南，到达哥伦比亚北部的安第斯山脉。解释潜在土狼分布的变量是人口密度，高度和受正面影响的农作物百分比以及负面影响的热带阔叶林。这些结果表明人类活动和森林砍伐与土狼分布扩展有关。可以在已确定的路线内采取行动，以改善环境管理，从而避免土狼出现在南美洲北部的生态系统中。海拔高度，对农作物有正面影响的百分比以及对热带阔叶林有负面影响的百分比。这些结果表明人类活动和森林砍伐与土狼分布扩展有关。可以在已确定的路线内采取行动，以改善环境管理，从而避免土狼出现在南美洲北部的生态系统中。海拔高度，对农作物有正面影响的百分比以及对热带阔叶林有负面影响的百分比。这些结果表明人类活动和森林砍伐与土狼分布扩展有关。可以在已确定的路线内采取行动，以改善环境管理，从而避免土狼出现在南美洲北部的生态系统中。