Antarctic krill is a key species of important Southern Ocean food webs, yet how changes in ocean temperature and primary production may impact their habitat quality remains poorly understood. We provide a circumpolar assessment of the robustness of krill growth habitat to climate change by coupling an empirical krill growth model with projections from a weighted subset of IPCC Earth system models. We find that 85% of the study area experienced only a moderate change in relative gross growth potential (± 20%) by 2100. However, a temporal shift in seasonal timings of habitat quality may cause disjunctions between krill’s biological timings and the future environment. Regions likely to experience habitat quality decline or retreat are concentrated near the northern limits of krill distribution and in the Amundsen–Bellingshausen seas region during autumn, meaning habitat will likely shift to higher latitudes in these areas.

南极磷虾是重要的南部海洋食物网的关键物种，但是，海洋温度和初级生产的变化如何影响其栖息地质量仍然知之甚少。通过将经验性磷虾生长模型与IPCC地球系统模型加权子集的预测相结合，我们对磷虾生长栖息地对气候变化的鲁棒性进行了极地评估。我们发现，到2100年，研究区域的85％的相对总增长潜力仅发生了中等程度的变化（±20％）。但是，栖息地质量的季节性变化随时间变化可能会导致磷虾的生物学变化与未来环境之间产生脱节。