Farmers face increased risks and vulnerability to the effects of climate change and land degradation on crop production due to the lack of information and impact assessment. This is especially true in the Khorezm, an irrigated agricultural region near the Aral Sea Basin (Uzbekistan) which represents eight million of irrigated land in Central Asia. Water scarcity requires research and introduction of alternative crops into a common winter wheat–cotton rotation. Mung bean ( Vigna radiata ) is considered as a drought-tolerant crop that could be implemented in Khorezm and other similar drought prone areas. The main objective of this study was modeling the triple rotation sequenced the winter wheat (WW), summer mung bean (MB) and cotton (C) as a single cropping system. Specific objectives were to (1) update the parameterization of the irrigated winter wheat and cotton modules in CropSyst to identify the key variables impacting the triple rotation (WW–MB–C) on overall crop yield; (2) to parameterize and validate the developed (CropSyst-based) model using controlled triple rotation data and (3) carry out scenario analyses to capture the influence of soil fertility levels and irrigation water shortage on crops growth, development and yields. The results revealed, for the first time, the impact of different soil-ecological factors such as high soil fertility (HSF) and low soil fertility (LSF) varying levels of irrigation water availability on crops in the triple crop rotation. Compared to LSF simulated yields of winter wheat and cotton under HSF were increased with 0.58 Mg ha −1 for WW grain and 0.21 Mg ha −1 for cotton while mung bean grain yields were not affected by different soil fertility levels. Scenario analyses showed the possibility of reduced (by 20%) irrigation for triple crop without the effect on yield. However, compared to full irrigation scenario, reduction of irrigation for 40 and 60% could decrease the rotation crops yields up to 33% and 40%, respectively. The developed model could be useful to increase the understanding of the nexus of food, energy and water in Khorezm and comparable regions of Central Asia, and to inform decision-making about sustainable use of available water resources.

中文翻译：

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模拟咸海盆地半干旱地区三轮作物生产力

由于缺乏信息和影响评估，农民面临气候变化和土地退化对作物生产影响的风险和脆弱性增加。在 Khorezm 尤其如此，这是一个靠近咸海盆地（乌兹别克斯坦）的灌溉农业区，代表了中亚 800 万块灌溉土地。缺水需要研究替代作物并将其引入共同的冬小麦-棉花轮作。绿豆（Vigna radiata）被认为是一种耐旱作物，可以在花剌子模和其他类似的干旱易发地区种植。本研究的主要目标是模拟将冬小麦 (WW)、夏绿豆 (MB) 和棉花 (C) 作为单一作物系统进行三轮轮作。具体目标是 (1) 更新 CropSyst 中灌溉冬小麦和棉花模块的参数化，以确定影响三重轮作 (WW-MB-C) 对整体作物产量的关键变量；(2) 使用受控的三轮轮作数据对开发的（基于 CropSyst 的）模型进行参数化和验证，以及 (3) 进行情景分析以捕捉土壤肥力水平和灌溉用水短缺对作物生长、发育和产量的影响。结果首次揭示了不同土壤生态因素（如高土壤肥力（HSF）和低土壤肥力（LSF））在三重轮作中对作物灌溉水可用性水平的影响。与 LSF 模拟相比，HSF 下冬小麦和棉花的产量增加了 0.58 Mg ha -1 WW 谷物和 0.58 Mg ha -1。21 Mg ha -1 棉花而绿豆籽粒产量不受不同土壤肥力水平的影响。情景分析表明，在不影响产量的情况下，减少（减少 20%）三季作物灌溉的可能性。然而，与全灌溉方案相比，减少 40% 和 60% 的灌溉可能会使轮作作物产量分别降低 33% 和 40%。开发的模型有助于加深对 Khorezm 和中亚类似地区粮食、能源和水之间关系的了解，并为有关可用水资源可持续利用的决策提供信息。与全灌溉方案相比，减少 40% 和 60% 的灌溉量会使轮作作物产量分别降低 33% 和 40%。开发的模型有助于加深对 Khorezm 和中亚类似地区粮食、能源和水之间关系的了解，并为有关可用水资源可持续利用的决策提供信息。与全灌溉方案相比，减少 40% 和 60% 的灌溉量会使轮作作物产量分别降低 33% 和 40%。开发的模型有助于加深对 Khorezm 和中亚类似地区粮食、能源和水之间关系的了解，并为有关可用水资源可持续利用的决策提供信息。